Sustaining the Ogallala Aquifer: From the Wells to People, A Holistic CNH Model

Abstract

Abstract. The impact of water policy on sustaining the Ogallala Aquifer is analyzed using a system-level theoretical approach integrating agricultural water and land use tendencies, changing climate, economic trends, and population dynamics. In so doing, we 1) model the current hyper-extractive coupled natural-human system (CNH), 2) forecast future outcomes of policy scenarios transitioning the current groundwater-based economic system toward more sustainable paths for the social, economic and natural components of the integrated system, and 3) communicate model projections to inform public policies for enhanced sustainability while minimizing the economic pain for the region's communities. The findings corroborate previous studies showing that conservation often leads initially to an expansion of irrigation activities. However, we also find that the expanded presence of irrigated acreage will reduce the impact of an increasingly dryer climate on the region's economy and create greater long-term stability in the farming sector along with increased employment and population in the region. The primary negative aspect of more extensive conservation policies are on the net present value of farmers' current investments in their operations. This study reinforces the salience of interdisciplinary linked CNH models to provide policy prescriptions to untangle and address significant environmental policy issues.