Sustainable urban planning to control flood exposure in the coastal zones of China

Abstract

Context. Sustainable development in coastal zones faces escalating flood risk in the context of climate change and urbanization, and the rapid urban growth in flood zones has been one of the key drivers. Therefore, understanding the urban exposure to flooding (UEF) and its future scenarios is important in coastal zones. Objectives. The objectives of this study were: (1) to assess the future dynamics of UEFs in China's coastal zones, and (2) to identify a sustainable way of urban planning in controlling the growth of UEFs. Methods. Future UEFs in coastal China were assessed during 2020–2050 by combining urban expansion model, scenario analysis, and flood exposure assessment. Alternative scenarios were considered of shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), representative concentration pathways (RCPs), strategies of urban planning. Results. The results show that the 1000-year flood UEFs along coastal China was expected to grow under SSP2-RCP4.5 from 9,879 km2 in 2020 to 13424 (12997–13981) km2 in 2050, representing an increment of 35.88% (31.56–41.52%). Alternatively, the strategy of sustainable development planning could reduce the newly added UEF by 16.98% (15.63–18.67%) in a 1000-year flood scenario. Conclusions. The findings proved that the ways of urban growth matters in terms of affecting food exposure and risk and flood risk should be incorporated into urban planning for a sustainable landscape. The study could offer methodology and support for sustainable development strategies in reducing future urban flood risk.