Sustainable Population Size at the County Level under Limited Development Policy Constraints: Case Study of the Xihaigu Mountain Area, Northwest China

Abstract

Understanding the extent to which demographic changes may affect the prospects of sustainable development is a priority for both academics and policy makers. Accordingly, we attempted to explore the population growth limit of the Xihaigu Mountain area in China. To analyze the optimum population at the county level, the relationship curve between population size and environmental quality was fitted using panel data (2009–2018). The sustainable population size of each county was determined by integrating the population carrying capacity of land resources and optimum population. The results show that the relationship between regional population size and environmental quality conforms to an inverted N-shaped curve. To maintain sustainable development, the population size of Tongxin, Xiji, and Haiyuan should be in the range of 320,800–379,800, 315,800–416,900, and 333,500–416,900, respectively. The current population size of other counties should be maintained, and their surplus construction lands are acceptable to be used for environmentally friendly industries rather than population expansion. We demonstrated a practical approach to calculate a dynamic range of population size under the dual constraints of resource and environment, which overcomes the shortcoming of only considering the maximum carrying capacity to a limited extent. We also identified the population boundary in a “steady-state economy” and quantified planetary boundaries of population in Xihaigu Mountain area using a dynamic sustainable population size. The findings provide decision-making references for the local government.

Early life malnutrition and risk of T2DM adulthood: evidence from the lower socioeconomic status of northwest Chinese population

“…In our study, the southern mountainous areas include Xiji, Haiyuan, and Yanchi counties, also known as XiHaiGu. This region has been recognized as one of the most barren areas in China since ancient times ( 18 ). It was once categorized as one of the national contiguous destitute areas and was evaluated by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) in 1972 as “one of the most unsuitable areas for living” ( 18 ).…”

“…This region has been recognized as one of the most barren areas in China since ancient times ( 18 ). It was once categorized as one of the national contiguous destitute areas and was evaluated by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) in 1972 as “one of the most unsuitable areas for living” ( 18 ). For a long time, this region has faced a “PPE (poor, people, and environment) vicious circle,” presenting a persistent contradiction between population, resources, environment, and socioeconomic development.…”

“…Among all regions in China, the Northwest area was reported to have inferior SES than the East. For example, the southern regions of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region (NHAR), the smallest northwestern province of China, were classified as the least accommodating places for humans to live by the United Nations before 1990s ( 18 ). The people living in this region not only experienced famine, but also be perceived as at a lower SES for a long time until the beginning of this century.…”