Sustainable Management of River Oases Along the Tarim River (P.R. China) and the Ecosystem Services Approach

Cyffka, Bernd; Rumbaur, Christian; Disse, Markus; Kuba, Martin

doi:10.15356/2071-9388_04v06_2013_07

Cited by 3 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 21 publications

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“…To achieve these aims we both consider existing publications, summarise results of own previous work, mainly conducted within the project Sustainable Management Along the River Oasis of Tarim River (SuMaRiO, www.sumario.de, Rumbaur et al 2015;Cyffka et al 2021) and performed additional new analyses.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Declining glaciers endanger sustainable development of the oases along the Aksu-Tarim River (Central Asia)

Bolch

Duethmann

Wortmann

et al. 2021

International Journal of Sustainable Development & World Ec

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Tarim River basin is the largest endorheic river basin in China. Due to the extremely arid climate the water supply solely depends on water originating from the glacierised mountains with about 75% stemming from the transboundary Aksu River. The water demand is linked to anthropogenic (specifically agriculture) and natural ecosystems, both competing for water. Ongoing climate change significantly impacts the cryosphere. The mass balance of the glaciers in Aksu River basin was clearly negative since 1975. The discharge of the Aksu headwaters has been increasing over the last decades mainly due to the glacier contribution. The average glacier melt contribution to total runoff is 30-37% with an estimated glacier imbalance contribution of 8-16%. Modelling using future climate scenarios indicate a glacier area loss of at least 50% until 2100. River discharge will first increase concomitant with glacier shrinkage until about 2050, but likely decline thereafter. The irrigated area doubled in the Aksu region between the early 1990s and 2020, causing at least a doubling of water demand. The current water surplus is comparable to the glacial runoff. Hence, even if the water demand will not grow further in the future a significant water shortage can be expected with declining glacial runoff. However, with the further expansion of irrigated agriculture and related industries, the water demand is expected to even further increase. Both improved discharge projections and planning of efficient and sustainable water use are necessary for further socioeconomic development in the region along with the preservation of natural ecosystems.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Declining glaciers endanger sustainable development of the oases along the Aksu-Tarim River (Central Asia)

Bolch

Duethmann

Wortmann

et al. 2021

International Journal of Sustainable Development & World Ec

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Modeling height–diameter relationship for Populus euphratica in the Tarim riparian forest ecosystem, Northwest China

et al. 2016

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Modeling height-diameter relationships is an important component in estimating and predicting forest development under different forest management scenarios. In this paper, ten widely used candidate height-diameter models were fitted to tree height and diameter at breast height (DBH) data for Populus euphratica Oliv. within a 100 ha permanent plots at Arghan Village in the lower reaches of the Tarim River, Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region of China. Data from 4781 trees were used and split randomly into two sets: 75 % of the data were used to estimate model parameters (model calibration), and the remaining data (25 %) were reserved for model validation. All model performances were evaluated and compared by means of multiple model performance criteria such as asymptotic t-statistics of model parameters, standardized residuals against predicted height, root mean square error (RMSE), Akaike's information criterion (AIC), mean prediction error (ME) and mean absolute error (MAE). The estimated parameter a for model (6) was not statistically significant at a level of a = 0.05. RMSE and AIC test result for all models showed that exponential models (1), (2), (3) and (4) performed significantly better than others. All ten models had very small MEs and MAEs. Nearly all models underestimated tree heights except for model (6). Comparing the MEs and MAEs of models, model (1) produced smaller MEs (0.0059) and MAEs (1.3754) than other models. To assess the predictive performance of models, we also calculated MEs by dividing the model validation data set into 10-cm DBH classes. This suggested that all models were likely to create higher mean prediction errors for tree DBH classes [20 cm. However, no clear trend was found among models. Model (6) generated significantly smaller mean prediction errors across all tree DBH classes. Considering all the aforementioned criteria, model (1): TH ¼ 1:3 þ a= 1 þ bÂ ð e ÀcÂDBH Þ and model (6): TH ¼ 1:3 þ DBH 2 = a þ bÂ ð DBH þ c Â DBH 2 Þ are recommended as suitable models for describing the height-diameter relationship of P. euphratica. The limitations of other models showing poor performance in predicting tree height are discussed. We provide explanations for these shortcomings.

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Wood harvest by pollarding exerts long-term effects on Populus euphratica stands in riparian forests at the Tarim River, NW China

Lang

Jeschke

Wommelsdorf

et al. 2015

Forest Ecology and Management

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Sustainable Management of River Oases Along the Tarim River (P.R. China) and the Ecosystem Services Approach

Cited by 3 publications

References 21 publications

Declining glaciers endanger sustainable development of the oases along the Aksu-Tarim River (Central Asia)

Declining glaciers endanger sustainable development of the oases along the Aksu-Tarim River (Central Asia)

Modeling height–diameter relationship for Populus euphratica in the Tarim riparian forest ecosystem, Northwest China

Wood harvest by pollarding exerts long-term effects on Populus euphratica stands in riparian forests at the Tarim River, NW China

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