Sustainable Development in the Export Trade from a Symbiotic Perspective on Carbon Emissions, Exemplified by the Case of Guangdong, China

Abstract

CO2 emissions are increasing with the expansion of export trade. Against the backdrop of the prominent trend of decarbonization in the global economy, the question of how to rise to the occasion to maintain the advantages of international trade, as well as achieving sustainable growth in export trade, has become an urgent issue for us to consider. This paper uses empirical analysis to propose and establish an econometric model of the symbiosis between carbon emissions and export trade dependence, economic structural changes and clean technology changes, based on the environmental Kuznets curve and using time series data for Guangdong Province from 2000 to 2021. The study found that there is a long-term, stable equilibrium relationship between the scale effect and technology effect on carbon emissions, and a positive relationship between the structural effect and carbon emissions. The study then constructed a symbiotic system of exports and carbon emissions from a symbiotic perspective. The Lotka–Volterra MCGP model was used to measure the evolution of the export and carbon emission symbiosis system from the optimization of three perspectives: the scale and structure of energy consumption under the dual constraints of export trade and carbon emissions, the scale of export trade under the carbon emission constraints, and the scale of carbon emissions under the export trade constraints. The results show that there is considerable room for improvement in the structure of energy consumption and carbon emissions in the current Guangdong export trade process. At the same time, this improvement can be achieved by adjusting the energy consumption structure and improving the efficiency of the system without changing the scale effect, technology effect or structural effect.