Sustainable development: Evaluation and forecasting of Norway spruce production and growing stock in Slovakia in the context of bioeconomy

Abstract

The paper deals with the identification of the long-term potential of forest stands with the prevailing Norway spruce representation and the elaboration of a forecast of the development of spruce growing stock and felling possibilities until 2050. The analysis of historical data has confirmed a decrease in the area of spruce by 13.2% since 2010 and its growing stock by 16.4% over the same period. These developments indicate a reduction in felling possibilities in the coming decades. The evaluation of spruce felling since 2012 showed that the planned felling volume was exceeded by 11.3 mil. m3, i.e. annually at average by 1.25 mil. m3. This exceeding was caused by incidental felling, which accounted for an average of 84% of total felling. The forecast of spruce growing stock and felling until 2050 was derived differently for two scenarios based on the development of growing stock and actual cutting percentages in the decade 2012–2020 (scenario A) and cutting percentages according to planned felling (scenario B). In the case of scenario A, there would be a significant reduction in spruce growing stock from the current volume of 114.8 mil. m3 by 36% in 2040. In the case of scenario B, a decrease in spruce growing stock would be more modest. Ten-year felling volume of spruce under the scenario A forecast will result in the amount of 42.6 mil. m3 (first decennium), 32.0 mil. m3 (second decennium) and 25.7 mil. m3 (third decennium).