Sustainable decision making under uncertainty: a case study in dredged material management

Abstract

Background: The port of Lübeck is one of Germany's most important harbours for goods traffic to and from the Baltic Sea Region. Sedimentation from the River Trave requires regularly maintenance dredging as well as capital dredging operations in order to maintain the operational capability of the port. A range of solutions for sustainable dredged material handling exist and an assessment of these options often proves to be challenging for decision makers. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) provides decision support by processing different data sets and evaluating suitable options in a rational way. Using the stochastic multi-criteria acceptability analysis (SMAA)-TRI method with a modification of a previously developed computerised model for decision support in dredged material management, this study was performed to test decision support under uncertainty. Results: The analysis endorsed that relocation to a dredged discharge pool and capping of an ammunition disposal site are viable options for Lübeck port. On the other hand, the use of dredged material from port expansion and its disposal on land are considered to be of very low sustainability under the given circumstances. Conclusions: The case study demonstrates capabilities as well as boundaries of computer-aided decision making under the premise of incomplete information. Despite uncertainties, sustainable decision making is possible with appropriate MCDA methodologies although minimum requirements concerning both data quality and data quantity must be fulfilled. Consequently, one possible alternative could not be integrated into the case study due to incomplete information.

TSMAA‐TRI: A temporal multi‐criteria sorting approach under uncertainty

“…Zheng, Egger, and Lienert (2016) applied the SMAA‐2 for ranking alternatives of wastewater infrastructure management in terms of sustainability. Scheffler, Roth, and Ahlf (2014) applied the SMAA‐TRI method using the JSMAA for categorizing solutions for sustainable dredged material handling to sustainable and unsustainable solutions. Rocchi (2012) applied SMAA‐2 to define a plan to protect the environment and to enhance the sustainable development of the area of a park in Italy.…”

Tiered approach to sustainability analysis in sediment remediation decision making

“…Several frameworks have been developed to support contaminated dredged material decision‐making (e.g., PIANC, 2009a; Scheffler, Roth, & Ahlf1, 2014; SMOCS, 2013; Vivian, Edwards, Apitz, & Bardos, 2011; Bates, Fox‐Lent, Seymour, Wender, & Linkov, 2015; Read, Bates, Wood, & Linkov, 2014; Stern & Peck, 2012); however, in situ sediment remediation decisions can be more complex. These decisions may consist of a combination of remedial technologies, with differing proportions of MNR/ENR, in situ treatment, capping, dredging, and a range of potential off‐site treatment, disposal and/or reuse alternatives (e.g., USEPA, 2016).…”

“…All active remediation results in environmental, economic, and social impacts on the environment and community, including positive and negative impacts (Apitz et al, 2018;Bardos et al, 2018;Butler, Larsen-Hallock, Lewis, Glenn, & Armstead, 2011;Cappuyns, 2016;NCRP, 2010;Smith and Kerrison, 2013;Smith and Nadebaum, 2016). Balancing such impacts through sustainability assessment poses normative questionsnot just objective and science-based, but those rooted in societal values, requiring engagement and a careful consideration of diverse stakeholders' priorities, bearing in mind that risks, benefits, and costs are not borne equally in terms of time, space, stakeholders, or demographics.…”

Multicriteria evaluation of carbon-neutral heat-only production technologies for district heating

“…SMAA has been applied to many problems in the areas of municipal planning , harbor development (Hokkanen et al 1999), polluted soil remediation Lahdelma & Salminen 2008a), waste treatment plant siting (Lahdelma et al 2002), forest management (Kangas et al 2003(Kangas et al , 2005, waste storage area siting (Lahdelma & Salminen 2008b), risk-based classification of nanomaterials (Tervonen et al 2009); multimodal cargo hub development (Menou et al 2010), strategic environmental assessment (Rocchi 2012), rural electrification in developing countries (Rahman et al 2013), energy policy assessment (Rahman et al 2016), benefit-risk analysis of drugs (Tervonen et al 2011;van Valkenhoef et al 2012;Okul et al 2014), energy monitoring systems selection (Pesola et al 2014), dredged material management (Scheffler et al 2014), peak heating plant siting in DH system (Wang et al 2015b), residential heating alternative evaluation (Kontu et al 2015), and public sector facility selection (Karabay et al 2016).…”