Sustainability science: accounting for nonlinear dynamics in policy and social–ecological systems

Abstract

Resilience is an emergent property of complex systems. Understanding resilience is critical for sustainability science, as linked social-ecological systems and the policy process that governs them have the capacity for nonlinear dynamics. The possibility of nonlinear change in these systems means that there is an inherent degree of uncertainty in social-ecological systems and the policy process. Abrupt, nonlinear change often results in social and/or ecological surprises that create tremendous challenges for environmental management. Thus, it is necessary to improve environmental management via a suite of mechanisms that have the capacity for adaptation. This paper suggests how we can move closer to achieving this goal through an overarching focus, including reformed and new law, adaptive management and adaptive governance, scenario planning, and leading indicators.

Integration across a metacoupled world

“…The metacoupling framework can help address complex features such as nonlinearity (Garmestani 2014, Blenckner et al 2015, Monfared et al 2016, bifurcations (Suweis andD'Odorico 2014, Monfared et al 2016), oscillations (Innes et al 2013, Chaffin andGunderson 2016), time lags (Hamann et al 2016, Rova andPranovi 2017), legacy effects , Waylen et al 2015, path dependence (Hukkinen 2003, Manson 2008, Nykvist and von Heland 2014, and surprises associated with emergent properties (Heckbert et al 2010, ReyesGarcia et al 2016. The governance of metacoupled systems should pay serious attention to the need for agility in response to various changes and for avoiding different types of lock-ins (Hukkinen 2003, Schlüter et al 2009, Waylen et al 2015, Laborde et al 2016.…”

Socio-hydrological modelling: a review asking "why, what and how?"

“…Exposure to natural events can lead to emergent resilience consequences in some cases, as in the case where a policy regime may be altered to increase resilience due to the occurrence of a catastrophe, for example London after 1953 (Lumbroso and Vinet, 2011), or Vietnamese agriculture (Adger, 1999), where the same event could perhaps have caused a loss in resilience were a different social structure in place (Garmestani, 2013). In all systems, the ability to adapt to circumstances is critical in creating resilience (though resilience can also breed adaptivity (Folke, 2006)); in the sphere of water resources, the adaptive capacity that a society has towards hydrological extremes determines its vulnerability to extremes to a great extent, and so management of water resources in the context of vulnerability reduction should involve an assessment of hydrological risk coupled with societal vulnerability (Pandey et al, 2011).…”

“…Magliocca (2009) investigates the interactions between humans and their landscapes, and determines that emergent behaviours in these systems are due to the "induced coupling" between them, and so should be modelled and managed using complex-systems-appropriate techniques. Resilience has also been studied with regard to complex systems, and the interactions in complex systems have been said to lead to resilience (Garmestani, 2013). Complex systems are an excellent framework within which to study socio-hydrological systems, since they allow for the discernment of the origin of complex behaviours, such as cross-scale interactions, nonlinearity and emergence (Falkenmark and Folke, 2002), due to their structure being decomposable and formed of subsystems that may themselves be analysed.…”

“…The study of socio-ecological systems (SESs) and coupled human and natural systems (CHANS), involves many aspects similar to that of socio-hydrology: feedbacks (Runyan et al, 2012), non-linear dynamics (Garmestani, 2013), coevolution (Hadfield and Seaton, 1999), adaptation , resilience (Folke et al, 2010), vulnerability (Simelton et al, 2009), issues of complexity (Liu et al, 2007a), governance (Janssen and Ostrom, 2006), policy (Ostrom, 2009) and modelling (Kelly et al, 2013; are all involved in thinking around, and analysis of, SESs. As such, there is much that socio-hydrology can learn from this fairly established (Crook, 1970) discipline, and so in this paper a proportion of the literature presented comes from the field of socio-ecology due to its relevance.…”

A limits-oriented approach to sustainable planning assessments: a comparative analysis of South East Queensland (Australia) and Lombardia (Italy)

“…Accounting for non-linear dynamics requires the adoption of adaptive approaches to make both policy-making and resources management resilient to social and ecological change (Garmestani 2014;Holling 1973;Holling 1978). Adaptive forms of management have evolved through time by developing and testing actions in the face of uncertainty (Walters 1986).…”