Sustainability assessment of energy supply scenarios: case study of Mali

Abstract

Mali is endowed with significant untapped renewable energy potentials paradoxically the country is identified as an energy-poor nation characterized by very high dependency on imports of petroleum products and heavy reliance on biomass (wood-fuel and charcoal). Access to electricity remains very low, with significant disparities across urban and rural remote areas. The gap between the electricity demand and supply keeps increasing yearly, and power shortages get frequent and longer, especially during dry periods from March to June. The energy demand increase, due to of population grow and rapid urbanization (causing more use of fossil fuels resources in the energy mix) bears the unsustainability of the country’s current energy supply. The challenge for the country is then to meet this growing energy demand with a sustainable energy supply system. In the present work, Analytical Hierarchy Process technique is applied to perform Multicriteria Decision Making analysis to identify and assess the most sustainable long-term energy supply options in Mali considering technical, environmental, social, and economic dimensions. The current situation and five alternatives of energy supply based on the country's current and future energy supply and climate change policies are proposed for assessment. Results show that the highest priority indicators by stakeholders’ survey are under economical dimension followed by the technical ones. The best scenario considers deploying renewable energy to up to 42% of the energy mix as the sustainable option for energy supply. Adopting such scenario requires measures as a strong political will to subsidize renewable energy equipment in order to make them affordable and also policies that encourage the use of renewable energy (such as lower taxes and duties). The suggested framework gives decision-makers, authorities, practitioners, and researches an effective tool for the country future energy planning.