Survivor rates of new entrants into an undergraduate degree programme under clearance uncertainty

Abstract

Abstract. . Considering the clearance exercise in a Nigerian university setting, this study attempts to answer the question of the following sort: 'What is the survivor rate of candidates offered (provisional) admission into a course of study in the face of clearance uncertainty?' We represent the problem as a system of differential equations within the framework of a network model with constant risk and then solve it using the Laplace transform. Rather than relying on steady-states fractional flow rates, we provide a transient solution to the problem. The survivor function for each entry level derived for the problem sheds some light on situations where a decision is to be made on two (or more) preferred courses and thus evades possible trauma in the application process.Résumé : Cetteétude prend place dans la problématique de l'admission desétudiants dans les universités nigériannes. Elle se propose de répondre aux questions semblablesà celle-ci : quel est le taux de survie (final) des candidats provisoirement admisà un programme dans une situation d'admission finale incertaine? Nous modélisons ce problème grâceà un système d'équations différentielles dans le cadre d'un modèle de réseauà risque constant. La transformation de Laplace est notre outil pour résoudre le problème théorique.

On a one-step admission batch size model for degree awarding institutions in Nigeria

“…New entrants admitted in the same session form a cohort, and they are identified by their matriculation/ registration number. Earlier on, the survivor rates of candidates admitted into either 100 Level or 200 Level was considered (Ekhosuehi and Oyegue, 2016). The present study attempts to answer the question: 'How many candidates should be admitted into an undergraduate degree programme in order to avoid excess enrolments at the levels of entry?'…”