Survival probability of new atmospheric particles: closure between theory and measurements from 1.4 to 100 nm

Abstract

Abstract. The survival probability of freshly nucleated particles governs the influences of new particle formation (NPF) on atmospheric environments and the climate. It characterizes the probability of a particle avoiding being scavenged by the coagulation with pre-existing particles and other scavenging processes before the particle successfully grows up to a certain diameter. Despite its importance, measuring the survival probability has been challenging, which limits the knowledge of particle survival in the atmosphere and results in large uncertainties in predicting the influences of NPF. Here we report the proper methods to retrieve particle survival probability using the measured aerosol size distributions. Using diverse aerosol size distributions from urban Beijing, the Finnish boreal forest, a chamber experiment, and aerosol kinetic simulations, we demonstrate that each method is valid for a different type of aerosol size distribution, whereas misapplying the conventional methods to banana-type NPF events may underestimate the survival probability. Using these methods, we investigate the consistency between the measured survival probability of new particles and the theoretical survival probability against coagulation scavenging predicted using the measured growth rate and coagulation sink. With case-by-case and time- and size-resolved analysis of long-term measurement data from urban Beijing, we find that although both the measured and theoretical survival probabilities are sensitive to uncertainties and variations, they are, on average, consistent with each other for new particles growing from 1.4 (the cluster size) to 100 nm.

Dynamics of nanocluster aerosol in the indoor atmosphere during gas cooking

“…2 , 3 , and S11 ). This relationship has previously been demonstrated for NCA during new particle formation events in outdoor environments ( 30 , 40 ). However, suppression of outdoor new particle formation events was observed when A Fuchs values exceeded 200 µm 2 cm −3 ( 30 ).…”

Opinion: A paradigm shift in investigating the general characteristics of atmospheric new particle formation using field observations

“…Kulmala et al, 2017). According to our current understanding in this respect (Cai et al, 2022;Tuovinen et al, 2022), dC should be 3 nm in minimum, and preferably somewhat larger under heavily polluted condiLons. The upper limit of dC should be selected so that the calculated values of JC would be minimally affected by primary parLcle sources.…”

“…ParLcle survival probabiliLes are sensiLve to the combined effect of the degree of polluLon and parLcle growth rate, and there are large uncertainLes in predicLng this quanLty in the sub-3 to 5 nm size range, especially in polluted environments (e.g. Kulmala et al, 2017;Cai et al, 2022;Tuovinen et al, 2022). This feature does not cause a major problem for invesLgaLng regional NPF, as long as the probability distribuLon of the parLcle formaLon rate is derived at large enough sizes, preferably at 5 nm and in minimum at 3 nm.…”

Survival probabilities of atmospheric particles: comparison based on theory, cluster population simulations, and observations in Beijing

“…The best method to determine the survival probability from observations depends on particle size distribution and its temporal evolution (Cai et al, 2022). In this study, we have determined the survival probability as a ratio of formation rates J 1 and J 2 (Kerminen and Kulmala, 2002;Kulmala et al, 2017).…”

“…In this study, we have determined the survival probability as a ratio of formation rates J 1 and J 2 (Kerminen and Kulmala, 2002;Kulmala et al, 2017). This method is able to produce accurate survival probabilities for a steady-state or a quasi-steady-state size distribution, and has been shown to give relatively accurate survival probabilities in Beijing during NPF events (Cai et al, 2022).…”