Survival of Norway spruce remains higher in mixed stands under a dryer and warmer climate

Neuner, Susanne; Albrecht, Axel; Cullmann, Dominik A.; Engels, Friedrich; Griess, Verena C.; Hahn, Walter A.; Hanewinkel, Marc; Härtl, Fabian; Kölling, Christian; Staupendahl, Kai; Knoke, Thomas

doi:10.1111/gcb.12751

Cited by 119 publications

(91 citation statements)

References 37 publications

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“…Following Nothdurft () and Neuner et al. (), we also related beech mortality to temperature and precipitation. The time available for annual tree growth was considered using growing degree‐days.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Does one model fit all? Patterns of beech mortality in natural forests of three European regions

Hülsmann

Bugmann

Commarmot

et al. 2016

Ecological Applications

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Large uncertainties characterize forest development under global climate change. Although recent studies have found widespread increased tree mortality, the patterns and processes associated with tree death remain poorly understood, thus restricting accurate mortality predictions. Yet, projections of future forest dynamics depend critically on robust mortality models, preferably based on empirical data rather than theoretical, not well-constrained assumptions. We developed parsimonious mortality models for individual beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) trees and evaluated their potential for incorporation in dynamic vegetation models (DVMs). We used inventory data from nearly 19,000 trees from unmanaged forests in Switzerland, Germany, and Ukraine, representing the largest dataset used to date for calibrating such models. Tree death was modelled as a function of size and growth, i.e., stem diameter (dbh) and relative basal area increment (relBAI), using generalized logistic regression accounting for unequal re-measurement intervals. To explain the spatial and temporal variability in mortality patterns, we considered a large set of environmental and stand characteristics. Validation with independent datasets was performed to assess model generality. Our results demonstrate strong variability in beech mortality that was independent of environmental or stand characteristics. Mortality patterns in Swiss and German strict forest reserves were dominated by competition processes as indicated by J-shaped mortality over tree size and growth. The Ukrainian primeval beech forest was additionally characterized by windthrow and a U-shaped size-mortality function. Unlike the mortality model based on Ukrainian data, the Swiss and German models achieved good discrimination and acceptable transferability when validated against each other. We thus recommend these two models to be incorporated and examined in DVMs. Their mortality predictions respond to climate change via tree growth, which is sufficient to capture the adverse effects of water availability and competition on the mortality probability of beech under current conditions.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…, Neuner et al. ), or Austria (Hasenauer , Monserud and Sterba ). Mortality models for beech based on dendrochronological data were developed by Gillner et al.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Does one model fit all? Patterns of beech mortality in natural forests of three European regions

Hülsmann

Bugmann

Commarmot

et al. 2016

Ecological Applications

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“…Climate‐suitable planting is also referred to as ‘assisted migration’, and means planting tree species beyond their current range, often with the aim of creating or maintaining diverse forests (Duveneck & Scheller, ). The finding that increasing species admixtures can strongly reduce the negative effects of unfavourable climate conditions on stand survival probability (Neuner et al ., ) is of particular importance for forest management. It has been shown that tree species growing in mixtures often differ considerably in their response to drought (Pretzsch et al ., ).…”

Section: Responses Of Mixed Stands To Climate Changesmentioning

confidence: 99%

Diversity and forest productivity in a changing climate

2018

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Contents Summary 50 I. Introduction 50 II. Drivers of the diversity-productivity relationship 51 III. Patterns of the diversity-productivity relationship 55 IV. Responses of mixed stands to climate change 57 V. Conclusions 60 Acknowledgements 61 References 61 SUMMARY: Although the relationship between species diversity and biomass productivity has been extensively studied in grasslands, the impact of tree species diversity on forest productivity, as well as the main drivers of this relationship, are still under discussion. It is widely accepted that the magnitude of the relationship between tree diversity and forest stand productivity is context specific and depends on environmental conditions, but the underlying mechanisms of this relationship are still not fully understood. Competition reduction and facilitation have been identified as key mechanisms driving the diversity-productivity relationship. However, contrasting results have been reported with respect to the extent to which competition reduction and facilitation determine the diversity-productivity relationship. They appear to depend on regional climate, soil fertility, functional diversity of the tree species involved, and developmental stage of the forest. The purpose of this review is to summarize current knowledge and to suggest a conceptual framework to explain the various processes leading to higher productivity of species-rich forests compared with average yields of their respective monocultures. This framework provides three pathways for possible development of the diversity-productivity relationship under a changing climate.

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“…In the non-stochastic model, European beech was only part of portfolios with very large uncertainty spaces and thus low standard deviations of ±83 to ±92. However, only when disregarding interactions between tree species Knoke and Seifert 2008;Liang et al 2016;Pretzsch et al 2010), climatic change (Neuner et al 2015), and other aspects, such as biodiversity (Gamfeldt et al 2013) or multiple ecosystem services , different rotation age cohorts of pure Norway spruce appear appropriate for achieving sustainable forest stands.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

A non-stochastic portfolio model for optimizing the transformation of an even-aged forest stand to continuous cover forestry when information about return fluctuation is incomplete

Messerer

Pretzsch

Knoke

2017

Annals of Forest Science

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Abstract& Key message Non-stochastic portfolio optimization of forest stands provides a good alternative to stochastic meanvariance optimization when available statistical data is incomplete. The suggested approach has a theoretical background in the areas of robust optimization, continuous multicriteria decision-making, and fuzzy theory. Resulting robust portfolios only show slight economic losses compared to the efficient frontier of a stochastic optimization. & Context Economic optimization addressing diversification in mixed uneven-aged forest stands is a useful tool for forest planners. & Aims The study aims to compare two approaches for optimizing rotation age cohort portfolios under risk. Rotation age cohorts emerge from age-based regeneration-harvesting operations simulated for two tree species: Picea abies and Fagus sylvatica. & Methods The first optimization approach is a stochastic mean-variance approach. The second is a non-stochastic optimization approach, which has rarely been applied to optimize tree species composition and the distribution of harvested timber over many periods. It aims at relatively good solutions, even if the deviation from the initially assumed return is very high. The objective function for both approaches is sensitive to the selection of various harvesting periods for different parts of the stand. For the stochastic approach, the objective function maximizes the annuitized net present value (economic return) for specific levels of risk by allocating area proportions to harvesting periods and tree species. In the non-stochastic approach, the allocation of area proportions instead minimizes the maximum deviation from the greatest possible economic return among many uncertainty scenarios (non-stochastic approach). & Results Portfolios from both approaches were diverse in rotation age cohorts. The non-stochastic portfolios were more diverse when compared with portfolios from the efficient frontier, which showed the same standard deviation. However, P. abies clearly dominated the non-stochastic portfolios, while stochastic portfolios also integrated beech to a greater extent, but only in very low risk portfolios. The economic losses of the non-stochastic portfolios compared to the efficient frontier of the mean-variance approach lay between 1 and 3% only for different levels of accepted risk. & Conclusion The non-stochastic portfolio optimization over a large uncertainty space is so far uncommon in forest science, yet provides a viable alternative to stochastic optimization, particularly when available data is scarce. However, further research should consider ecological effects, such as increased resistance against hazards of conifers in mixed stands.

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Survival of Norway spruce remains higher in mixed stands under a dryer and warmer climate

Cited by 119 publications

References 37 publications

Does one model fit all? Patterns of beech mortality in natural forests of three European regions

Does one model fit all? Patterns of beech mortality in natural forests of three European regions

Diversity and forest productivity in a changing climate

A non-stochastic portfolio model for optimizing the transformation of an even-aged forest stand to continuous cover forestry when information about return fluctuation is incomplete

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