Survival of Broadway shows: An empirical investigation of recent trends

“I Hope I Get It”: impact of Tony Award nominations and wins on Broadway production longevity

“…Also in line with Boyle and Chiou’s (2009), Kulmatitskiy et al ’s (2015), and Simonoff and Ma’s (2003) results, Tony Award nominations will generally have little or no impact on the length of a production’s run, whereas winning an award will be associated with a larger number of performances.…”

“…However, when using the number of performances as a metric, it is important to distinguish between Broadway productions with open-ended and limited runs (Kulmatitskiy et al , 2015). An open-ended run is a production that has no pre-determined closing data and which the producers intend to keep open as long as is financially feasible.…”

“…An open-ended run is a production that has no pre-determined closing data and which the producers intend to keep open as long as is financially feasible. A production with a close-ended run opens with a pre-determined closing date (Gates, 2013; Kulmatitskiy et al , 2015). For close-ended productions, the number of performances would not be a useful measure of economic success if the production closed on schedule; so they were not included in this study.…”

“…Finally, the month and year of the production opened was recorded because Simonoff and Ma (2003) found that shows that opened in the Summer (immediately after the Tony Awards) had shorter runs than those that opened later in the Broadway season, possibly due to some seasonality in the Broadway industry (see also Kulmatitskiy et al , 2015). The year of the production was included because of Maddison’s (2004) finding that more recent productions tend to have longer runs.…”

“…However, what is not clear is whether plays and musicals should be analyzed together – with a nominal independent variable distinguishing the two types of shows – or separately. Kulmatitskiy et al (2015), Reddy et al (1998), and Simonoff and Ma (2003) took the former approach, while Gates (2013) and Maddison (2004) chose the latter. Analyzing both types of productions together increases statistical power; however, analyzing them separately reflects the differing economic challenges of each type of show and the potentially varying benefits of Tony Awards for each.…”