The qualitative ECG strain pattern of ST depression (STD) and T-wave inversion is strongly associated with coronary heart disease and left ventricular (LV) hypertrophy and is an independent predictor of new-onset heart failure in hypertensive patients. However, whether quantitative measures of STD in the lateral precordial predict new heart failure is unclear. Digital ECGs were examined in 2,059 American Indian participants in the second Strong Heart Study examination with no history of heart failure. The absolute magnitude of ST segment deviation was measured by computer to the nearest 5 μV in leads V 5 and V 6 . During 5.7±1.4 years follow-up, heart failure developed in 77 participants (3.7%). Participants who developed heart failure had greater STD in leads V 5 or V 6 (−11±35 vs 12±27 μV, p<0.001) than those who did not. In univariate Cox analyses, Address Publisher's Disclaimer: This is a PDF file of an unedited manuscript that has been accepted for publication. As a service to our customers we are providing this early version of the manuscript. The manuscript will undergo copyediting, typesetting, and review of the resulting proof before it is published in its final citable form. Please note that during the production process errors may be discovered which could affect the content, and all legal disclaimers that apply to the journal pertain. STD was a significant predictor of new heart failure, with each 10 μV greater STD associated with a 31% greater risk of heart failure (hazard ratio [HR] 1.31, 95% CI 1.24-1.39). Increasing STD grouped according to quartiles was strongly associated with the development of heart failure, with step-wise increasing risk of heart failure compared with the lowest quartile of STD for the second (HR 2.39, 95% CI 0.77-7.40), third (HR 3.01, 95% CI 1.00-9.08) and fourth quartile of STD (HR 9.06,). In Cox multivariate analyses controlling for age, gender, diabetes, coronary heart disease, albuminuria and for other baseline risk factors, STD remained a significant predictor of incident heart failure (HR 1.22, 95% CI 1.13-1.32, per 10 μV increment in STD, p<0.001). In conclusion, increasing STD in the lateral precordial leads is strongly associated with an increased risk of developing heart failure, independent of other risk factors for new heart failure.
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Keywordselectrocardiogram; heart failure; hypertrophy Computerized measurement of the degree of ECG ST depression (STD) in the lateral precordial leads has demonstrated that increasing magnitude of STD in leads V 5 and/or V 6 is associated with higher left ventricular (LV) mass and greater prevalence of anatomic LV hypertrophy (1). Although the magnitude of STD has been demonstrated to predict all-cause and cardiovascular mortality independent of the predictive value of ECG and echocardiographic LV hypertrophy (2), whether greater STD in the lateral precordial leads on the standard rest ECG is associated with increased risk of new-onset heart failure has not been examined. Therefore, the present study e...