Survival analysis of all critically ill patients with COVID-19 admitted to the main hospital in Mogadishu, Somalia, 30 March–12 June 2020: what interventions are proving effective?

Ali, Mohamed Mandour; Malik, Mamunur Rahman; Ahmed, Abdulrazaq Yusuf; Bashir, Ahmed Muhammad; Mohamed, Abdulmunim; Abdi, Abdulkadir; Obtel, Majdouline

doi:10.1101/2021.01.01.20248966

Cited by 3 publications

(3 citation statements)

References 21 publications

(18 reference statements)

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“…43,48,53,54 Another survival analysis performed on 131 patients hospitalized in the main hospital in Mogadishu even documented a mortality rate of 40%. 55 The proportion of adverse outcomes in our study population is low even in comparison with studies from high income countries. One large-scale multicenter observational study including almost half a million hospitalized COVID-19 patients from 49 different countries for example, showed a mortality of 20%.…”

Section: Multivariable Survival Analysiscontrasting

confidence: 57%

Factors associated with adverse outcomes among patients hospitalized at a COVID-19 treatment center run by Médecins sans Frontières in Herat, Afghanistan

Klein

Bastard

Hemat

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Background Though many studies on COVID have been published to date, data on COVID-19 epidemiology, symptoms, risk factors and severity in low- and middle-income countries (LMICS), such as Afghanistan are sparse. Objective To describe clinical characteristics, severity, and outcomes of patients hospitalized in the MSF COVID-19 treatment center (CTC) in Herat, Afghanistan and to assess risk factors associated with severe outcomes. Methods 1113 patients were included in this observational study between June 2020 and April 2022. Descriptive analysis was performed on clinical characteristics, complications, and outcomes of patients. Univariate description by Cox regression to identify risk factors for an adverse outcome was performed. Adverse outcome was defined as death or transfer to a level 3 intensive care located at another health facility. Finally, factors identified were included in a multivariate Cox survival analysis. Results A total of 165 patients (14.8%) suffered from a severe disease course, with a median time of 6 days (interquartile range: 2-11 days) from admission to adverse outcome. In our multivariate model, we identified male gender, age over 50, high O2 flow administered during admission, lymphopenia, anemia and O2 saturation <=93% during the first three days of admission as predictors for a severe disease course (p<0.05). Conclusion Our analysis concluded in a relatively low rate of adverse outcomes of 14.8%. This is possibly related to the fact, that the resources at an MSF-led facility are higher, in terms of human resources as well as supply of drugs and biomedical equipment, including oxygen therapy devices, compared to local hospitals. Predictors for severe disease outcomes were found to be comparable to other settings.

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Section: Multivariable Survival Analysiscontrasting

confidence: 57%

Factors associated with adverse outcomes among patients hospitalized at a COVID-19 treatment center run by Médecins sans Frontières in Herat, Afghanistan

Klein

Bastard

Hemat

et al. 2023

Preprint

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“…3 According to a research conducted by De Martino Hospital, Somalia’s largest and only public sector hospital, 131 patients were admitted between March 30 and June 12, 2020, with 79/131 (60%) being discharged and 52/131 (40%) died during hospitalization. 4 …”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Prevalence of Acute Kidney Injury in Covid-19 Patients- Retrospective Single-Center Study

Bashir¹,

Mukhtar

Mohamed

et al. 2022

IDR

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Introduction In December 2019, a coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) disease outbreak started in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, and spread rapidly to other regions of the world. Although diffuse alveolar injury and acute respiratory failure were the most prominent characteristics, further investigation of organ involvement is essential. Aim In this study, we aim to determine the prevalence of acute kidney injury (AKI) in covid-19 patients and also the relationship between inflammatory markers, the severity of lung involvement, and acute kidney injury in COVID-19 patients. Methods This was a retrospective analysis of 102 COVID-19 patients presented to a tertiary teaching hospital in Mogadishu during the second wave of Covid-19 2021. Patients’ age, gender, comorbidities, hemoglobin, platelet, and white blood cell counts, glucose, urea, creatinine, sodium, potassium, CRP, ferritin, real-time polymerase chain reaction (RT PCR) Covid-19 test and CT scan findings were all collected. Results The mean age of the patients was 58 (Range 23–91 years), including 64 men and 38 women. The prevalence of acute kidney injury was 12.7%. There was a significant association between acute kidney injury, CRP and ferritin with the p values of P<0.003 and P<0.004, respectively. For severity of lung involvement with computed tomography finding, 35 (34.3%) had mild, 35 (34.3%) had moderate and 32 (31.4%) had severe lung involvement. There was significant association between the lung involvement, Ferritin and CRP levels with P values of P<0.005 and P<0.007 respectively. Conclusion Our findings indicate that acute kidney injury is common in covid-19 patients and can increase the morbidity and mortality of these patients. As a result, clinicians in low-resource countries such as Somalia should be more vigilant about kidney injury in patients with severe COVID-19.

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“…Kundu and Mandal (2020) carried out a survival analysis to establish the variability in survivorship among age groups and sex at different levels that is national, state and district level in india. Ali et al (2020) implemented survival analysis to determine risk factors for death in patients with COVID-19 admitted to the main public sector hospital in Somalia and identify interventions contributing to improved clinical outcome in a low-resource and fragile setting. Implementing multivariate Cox-PH model (Wang et al, 2020) found that preparation control measures of COVID-19 should involve the allocation of sufficient medical resources, especially in areas with older vulnerable populations and in areas that lack basic medical resources.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Factors Influencing The First and Second Peak of COVID-19 Global Cases: A Survival Analysis

Oshan

Zainab

Bandyopadhyay

et al. 2021

Preprint

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Objectives: The number of reported cases continues to increase everyday, since the first case of COVID-19 was detected in Wuhan, China in December 2019. Using the global COVID-19 data of 188 countries extracted from the Our World in Data between January 22, 2020--January 18, 2021, this study attempts to explore the potential determinants of the number of days to reach the first and second peak of COVID-19 cases for all 188 countries. Methods: A semi-parametric Cox proportional hazard (PH) model has been used to explore the covariates that are associated with the number of days to reach the first and second peak of global COVID-19 cases. Results: As of January 18, 2021, the first and second peak were found in 175 and 59 countries, out of 188 countries, respectively. The median number of days to hit the first peak was 60 days for countries which have median age above 40 while the median number of days to hit the second peak was 267 days for countries which have population density above 500 per square kilometer. Countries having population density between 250 and 500 were 2.25 times more likely to experience the first peak of COVID-19 cases (95% CI: 1.15-4.45, P<0.05) than countries which have population density below 25. Countries having population density between 100 and 250 were 67% less likely to get the second peak (95% CI: 0.119-0.908, P<0.05) compared to countries which have population density below 25. Countries having cardiovascular death rates above 350 were 2.94 times more likely to get the first peak (95% CI: 1.59-5.43, P<0.001). In contrast, countries having diabetes prevalence rate 3 to 12 were 85% less likely to experience the second peak of COVID-19 cases (95% CI: 0.036-0.680, P<0.05) than countries which have diabetes prevalence rate below 3. Besides, highly significant difference is found in the Kaplan-Meier plots of the number of days to reach both peaks across different categories of the country's Human Development Index. Conclusions: The number of days to the first peak was considerably small in Asian & European countries but that to the second peak in the countries where diabetes prevalence was very higher. Country's life expectancy had a significant effect on determining the first peak and so was the case for two other variables--the cardiovascular death rate and hospital beds per thousand. A contrast result was found for Human Development Index factor under the second peak. Additionally, it was found that the second peak was more likely to occur in more densely populated countries.

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Survival analysis of all critically ill patients with COVID-19 admitted to the main hospital in Mogadishu, Somalia, 30 March–12 June 2020: what interventions are proving effective?

Cited by 3 publications

References 21 publications

Factors associated with adverse outcomes among patients hospitalized at a COVID-19 treatment center run by Médecins sans Frontières in Herat, Afghanistan

Factors associated with adverse outcomes among patients hospitalized at a COVID-19 treatment center run by Médecins sans Frontières in Herat, Afghanistan

Prevalence of Acute Kidney Injury in Covid-19 Patients- Retrospective Single-Center Study

Factors Influencing The First and Second Peak of COVID-19 Global Cases: A Survival Analysis

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