Surrogate-based simulation optimization approach for day-to-day dynamics model calibration with real data

Transit network simulation models are often used for performance and retrospective analysis of urban rail systems, taking advantage of the availability of extensive automated fare collection (AFC) and automated vehicle location (AVL) data. Important inputs to such models, in addition to origin-destination flows, include passenger path choices and train capacity. Train capacity, which has often been overlooked in the literature, is an important input that exhibits a lot of variabilities. The paper proposes a simulation-based optimization (SBO) framework to simultaneously calibrate path choices and train capacity for urban rail systems using AFC and AVL data. The calibration is formulated as an optimization problem with a black-box objective function. Seven algorithms from four branches of SBO solving methods are evaluated. The algorithms are evaluated using an experimental design that includes five scenarios, representing different degrees of path choice randomness and crowding sensitivity. Data from the Hong Kong Mass Transit Railway (MTR) system is used as a case study. The data is used to generate synthetic observations used as “ground truth.” The results show that the response surface methods (particularly constrained optimization using response surfaces) have consistently good performance under all scenarios. The proposed approach drives large-scale simulation applications for monitoring and planning.

Section: Reference Scenario Resultssupporting

confidence: 91%

Calibrating Path Choices and Train Capacities for Urban Rail Transit Simulation Models Using Smart Card and Train Movement Data

Koutsopoulos

et al. 2021

“…e optimization for the operation of toll plaza tends to be developed based on the analytical model for the queueing system [8,21]. Although simulation has been traditionally used as a tool to understand and experiment with a system, connecting the simulation model to the optimization engine also gives an effective solution to the optimization problem [22,23]. Simulation-based optimization is an approach whereby an optimization engine provides the decision variables for the simulation model.…”

Section: Simulation-based Optimization Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…e simulation-based optimization approach has been widely used to solve the problems of congestion pricing, traffic signal control, transit scheduling, vehicle sharing, supply chain management, liner shipping, etc. [23]. However, the above simulation-based optimization problem is computationally expensive and cannot be solved by derivative-based solvers because the objective function and/or constraint set have to be treated as black boxes for the algebraic description of the simulation is not directly available.…”

Section: Simulation-based Optimization Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…e Kriging model is a widely used surrogate model. We use the Kriging metamodel to solve the discrete-time DTAP in this study because it is more flexible than polynomial regression models in fitting arbitrary smooth response functions and less sensitive than other metamodels (such as RBF) to a small change in the design of the experiment [23]. e complexity of discrete-time DTAP is also given by the number of integer variables, which increases with the number of periods [29].…”

Section: Simulation-based Optimization Approachmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Simulation-Based Optimization for the Operation of Toll Plaza at Car Park Exit with Mixed Types of Tollbooths and Waiting-Time-Dependent Service

Wang

et al. 2021

This study presents an approach of simulation-based optimization to the operation of the toll plaza at the car park exit. We first propose a simulation model, as the representation of the queueing system for the toll plaza with mixed-type customers and servers where the service time is dependent on the waiting time of customer. Then, a simulation-based integer programming model is developed to design more traffic-efficient yet cost-effective operation schemes. It is decomposed by a rolling horizon approach into subproblems which are all solved via the Kriging metamodel algorithm. A numerical example is presented to illustrate the model and offer insight on how to achieve traffic efficiency and cost-effectiveness.

“…e function of an isolated intersection is mainly determined by its control parameters, and of course by other intersections. However, due to the complexity of modern transportation systems, coordinated control of traffic signals has become one of the important traffic management strategies in cities [6,7]. Mapping to reality is even more unimpeded traffic flow, fewer traffic accidents, and more stable driving speed [8].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Bilevel Programming for Traffic Signal Coordinated Control considering Pedestrian Crossing

Song

Chen

2020

With the rapid development of the subway, more and more people choose it as the main method of transportation. However, practically, the large number of pedestrians near some large metro stations can also correspondingly affect the traffic of motor vehicles on the roads adjacent to the stations. In this study, coordinated control of the traffic signal which considers the pedestrian crossing delay is studied based on this background. Firstly, the model of progression band in adjacent intersections is analyzed comprehensively, and the calculation formulas of progression bandwidth and the delay of vehicles which are from the progression of traffic flow under different conditions are given. Secondly, five different models of pedestrian delay are analyzed. Under different conditions of motor vehicle and pedestrian traffic flow, the Vissim fitting and proofreading are carried out and the optimal models under different conditions are obtained. Finally, the bilevel programming problem which fuses the above two models is determined; by coding an algorithm, it can be resolved. Furthermore, taking eight signalized intersections from Jiming Temple to Daxinggong along Nanjing Metro Line 3 as the actual background, the calculation and optimization of coordinated control are carried out. It is found that at the expense of the traffic efficiency of large intersections to a certain extent, a wider progression band can be formulated on the roads between them, and pedestrian delays can be reduced in general.