SURFER v2.0: a flexible and simple model linking anthropogenic CO₂ emissions and solar radiation modification to ocean acidification and sea level rise

Abstract

Abstract. We present SURFER, a novel reduced model for estimating the impact of CO2 emissions and solar radiation modification options on sea level rise and ocean acidification over timescales of several thousands of years. SURFER has been designed for the analysis of CO2 emission and solar radiation modification policies, for supporting the computation of optimal (CO2 emission and solar radiation modification) policies and for the study of commitment and responsibility under uncertainty. The model is based on a combination of conservation laws for the masses of atmospheric and oceanic carbon and for the oceanic temperature anomalies, and of ad-hoc parameterisations for the different sea level rise contributors: ice sheets, glaciers and ocean thermal expansion. It consists of 9 loosely coupled ordinary differential equations, is understandable, fast and easy to modify and calibrate. It reproduces the results of more sophisticated, high-dimensional earth system models on timescales up to millennia.

Reviews and syntheses: Abrupt ocean biogeochemical change under human-made climatic forcing – warming, acidification, and deoxygenation

“…Two recent comprehensive model intercomparison projects have been dedicated to identify how the Earth system reacts if greenhouse gas emissions are set to zero at a certain point in time (ZECMIP, Zero Emissions Commitment Intercomparison 435 Project) (Jones et al, 2019), and how it reacts if additionally negative CO2 emissions can be achieved (CDRMIP, Carbon Dioxide Removal Model Intercomparison Project) (Keller et al, 2018). The first ZECMIP results confirm that the abrupt global surface air temperature rise since the start of industrialisation is only slowly -if at all -attenuated over time even if greenhouse gas emissions swiftly go to zero (Montero et al, 2022;Schwinger et al, 2022b). The picture changes for massive carbon dioxide removals from the atmosphere, where the global mean surface air temperature approaches the preindustrial 440 levels if indeed preindustrial CO2 concentrations were re-established (Jeltsch-Thömmes et al, 2020;.…”

Arctic Oceanic Carbon Cycle: A Comprehensive Review of Mechanisms, Regulations, and Models

“…Breakdown of Model Suitability by Complexity. References[2,[78][79][80][81][82][83][84][85][86][87][88][89][129][130][131][132][133][134][135][136][137][138][181][182][183][184][185][186][187][188] are cited in the supplementary materials.Author Contributions: Conceptualization, X.Y. and B.C.…”