Surface Temperature Trend Estimation over 12 Sites in Guinea Using 57 Years of Ground-Based Data

Abstract

Trend-Run model was performed to estimate the trend in surface temperatures recorded at 12 sites in Guinea from 1960 to 2016 and to examine the contribution of each climate forcing. The coefficient of determination (R 2 ) calculated varies between 0.60 and 0.90, it provides total information about the simulation capability of the model. The decadal trend values also calculated show an upward trend (between 0.04 °C ± 0.06 °C decade −1 and 0.21 °C ± 0.06 °C decade −1 ). In addition, forcings' contributions were quantified, and the annual oscillation (AO) contribution is higher for most of the stations, followed by semiannual oscillation (SAO). Among the forcings, the tropical Northern Atlantic (TNA) contribution is greater than that of the sunspot number (SSN), Niño3.4 and Atlantic Niño (AN). Moreover, the Mann-Kendall test revealed a positive significant trend for all stations except at the Macenta site. Additionally, with sequential Mann-Kendall test, trend turning points were found only for the stations of Mamou, Koundara and Macenta at different dates. The temperature anomalies depict warming episodes (1970s, 1980s, 1984 and 1990s). Since then, the temperature is consistently increasing over the country. A significant warming has been shown, which might be further investigated using these models with additional contributing factors.

Progress and challenges of Guinea’s national service of risk management in building climate-induced disasters’ resilience in Guinea Savanna communities

“…Its 320 km of coastline in the southwest faces the Atlantic Ocean, where the capital Conakry is located. Guinea is subdivided into four (4) natural regions due to its distinct geographical and climatic conditions: (1) Lower Guinea, which borders the entire coastal strip of the country with lowlands and mangrove forests; (2) Middle Guinea known as Fouta Djallon, covers the wooded and mountainous areas; (3) Upper Guinea or Guinea Savanna, covers the largest watershed area of the country, made up of uplands and floodplains; and (4) Forest Guinea, a region of dense forests and mountains, as well as dense river network (Loua et al, 2020). Overall, Guinea faces a variety of natural shocks, including droughts, floods, landslides, earthquakes, tornadoes, and sea level rise, as well as disease outbreaks notably the Ebola (2014-2015) with 2,500 deaths, and recently COVID 19 virus (2020).…”

“…To date, traditional knowledge, beliefs, customs, prayers, incantations, and sacrifices, as well as some rare rehabilitation activities, remain the main means used to deal with disasters all over the history of occurring disasters in Guinea (Iloka, 2016). Therefore, Guinea seems almost powerless to face new climatic conditions noticeable by episodic drought or flood events across the country, notably in Guinea Savanna (Van Niekerk et al, 2020) highly prone to disasters (Loua et al, 2020). Guinea Savanna is identified as the most climatevulnerable area in Guinea, characterised by frequent weather-related hazards such as drought, floods, bushfires and high temperatures that trigger huge obstacles to livelihoods' production and food security (United States Agency for International Development, 2018).…”