Surface Temperature Pattern Scenarios Suggest Higher Warming Rates Than Current Projections

Alessi, Marc J.; Rugenstein, Maria A. A.

doi:10.1029/2023gl105795

Cited by 4 publications

(6 citation statements)

References 70 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…We "tune" GF P to reproduce the SWUS precipitation output from the historical and RCP8.5 MPI-GE ensemblemean simulations (Figure 2b), similar to Y. Dong et al (2019) and Alessi and Rugenstein (2023b). Without tuning, the GF predicts too much wetting in the SWUS (Figure S2 in Supporting Information S1).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 95%

“…We developed a precipitation Green's function (GF P ) to identify which SST regions influence SWUS (32°-40°N, 124°-105°W) precipitation (e.g., Alessi & Rugenstein, 2023b;Bloch-Johnson et al, 2024;Y. Dong et al, 2019;Zhang et al, 2023;Zhou et al, 2017).…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…To maintain the same global-mean SST anomaly in the scenario as in the RCP8.5 simulation, the SST at other grid points around the globe, outside the region of interest, is slightly adjusted (an area-weighted cooling is applied to the rest of the world for a warming scenario, and vice-versa for a cooling storyline). Alessi and Rugenstein (2023b) apply this method to net top-of-atmosphere radiative imbalance (see more details in Text S3 of Supporting Information S1).…”

Section: Sensitivity Of Swus Precipitation Trends To Sst Trendsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Potential Near‐Term Wetting of the Southwestern United States if the Eastern and Central Pacific Cooling Trend Reverses

Alessi,

Rugenstein

2024

Geophysical Research Letters

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Near‐term projections of drought in the southwestern United States (SWUS) are uncertain. The observed decrease in SWUS precipitation since the 1980s and heightened drought conditions since the 2000s have been linked to a cooling sea surface temperature (SST) trend in the Equatorial Pacific. Notably, climate models fail to reproduce these observed SST trends, and they may continue doing so in the future. Here, we assess the sensitivity of SWUS precipitation projections to future SST trends using a Green's function approach. Our findings reveal that a slight redistribution of SST leads to a wetting or drying of the SWUS. A reversal of the observed cooling trend in the Central and East Pacific over the next few decades would lead to a period of wetting in the SWUS. It is critical to consider the impact of possible SST pattern trends on SWUS precipitation trends until we fully trust SST evolution in climate models.

show abstract

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 95%

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Sensitivity Of Swus Precipitation Trends To Sst Trendsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Potential Near‐Term Wetting of the Southwestern United States if the Eastern and Central Pacific Cooling Trend Reverses

Alessi,

Rugenstein

2024

Geophysical Research Letters

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Figure S7 shows a case study in which two different patch layouts are used around the Southern Ocean. The top row uses the equal-area patch layout from Alessi and Rugenstein (2023), while the bottom row shows an equal lat./lon. layout grid as in Dong et al (2019), for which patches polewards of 50°have δϕ p = 40°and δθ p = 80°.…”

Section: Patch Layout (ϕ P θ P δϕ P δθ P )mentioning

confidence: 99%

The Green's Function Model Intercomparison Project (GFMIP) Protocol

Bloch‐Johnson,

Rugenstein,

Alessi

et al. 2024

J Adv Model Earth Syst

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

The atmospheric Green's function method is a technique for modeling the response of the atmosphere to changes in the spatial field of surface temperature. While early studies applied this method to changes in atmospheric circulation, it has also become an important tool to understand changes in radiative feedbacks due to evolving patterns of warming, a phenomenon called the “pattern effect.” To better study this method, this paper presents a protocol for creating atmospheric Green's functions to serve as the basis for a model intercomparison project, GFMIP. The protocol has been developed using a series of sensitivity tests performed with the HadAM3 atmosphere‐only general circulation model, along with existing and new simulations from other models. Our preliminary results have uncovered nonlinearities in the response of the atmosphere to surface temperature changes, including an asymmetrical response to warming versus cooling patch perturbations, and a change in the dependence of the response on the magnitude and size of the patches. These nonlinearities suggest that the pattern effect may depend on the heterogeneity of warming as well as its location. These experiments have also revealed tradeoffs in experimental design between patch size, perturbation strength, and the length of control and patch simulations. The protocol chosen on the basis of these experiments balances scientific utility with the simulation time and setup required by the Green's function approach. Running these simulations will further our understanding of many aspects of atmospheric response, from the pattern effect and radiative feedbacks to changes in circulation, cloudiness, and precipitation.

show abstract

“…Yet, inexplicably, the predicted 0.14 0 C per decade rise appears to have been substantially exceeded, with temperatures now predicted to rise by levels approaching 0.36 0 C per decade 8,9 . Notably, the model predicted 0.7 0 C rise between 1970 and 2020 10 but the measured rise was 40% higher at 0.98 0 C 11 (Fig.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 98%

Global warming is intensifying due to population growth and food production

Silberstein

2024

Preprint

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Between 1970 and 2020 global temperatures rose by 0.280C or 40% more than the 0.70C predicted by climate models based upon radiative forcing from greenhouse gas emissions. Over the same period, the Earth’s human population more than doubled, while the total mass of other mammals and birds that are farmed for human consumption tripled. To determine whether heat produced by these warm-blooded animals and birds was responsible for the temperature rise, publicly available databases were scrutinized for human population growth and livestock production, as well as global energy use, and heat emission values were calculated. Using the heat transfer equation, the total calculated temperature rise from biological heat production by warm-blooded animals over the surveyed time period was found to be sufficient to account for the observed temperature rise, not counting a small additional contribution from industrial waste heat. Subject to verification of the methods used in this analysis, recalculation of greenhouse gas emission targets may be required, with consideration given to measures aimed at both reducing population growth and production of animals for human consumption.

show abstract

Surface Temperature Pattern Scenarios Suggest Higher Warming Rates Than Current Projections

Cited by 4 publications

References 70 publications

Potential Near‐Term Wetting of the Southwestern United States if the Eastern and Central Pacific Cooling Trend Reverses

Potential Near‐Term Wetting of the Southwestern United States if the Eastern and Central Pacific Cooling Trend Reverses

The Green's Function Model Intercomparison Project (GFMIP) Protocol

Global warming is intensifying due to population growth and food production

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About