Surface Deformation and Seismicity Induced by Poroelastic Stress at the Raft River Geothermal Field, Idaho, USA

Li, Bing Q.; Khoshmanesh, M.; Avouac, Jean Philippe

doi:10.1029/2021gl095108

Cited by 3 publications

(1 citation statement)

References 39 publications

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“…where σ is the stress, and F σx,y,z is a function of the cuboid's position, and the observation points. For details on this function, the reader is referred to (Kuvshinov, 2008;Li et al, 2021). Due to the resolution on compressibility values in the reservoir (Smith et al, 2019), the strain and stress fields are smoothed to 4 km length using a Gaussian the reservoir model.…”

Section: Data and Resourcementioning

confidence: 99%

Induced Seismicity Forecasting with Uncertainty Quantification: Application to the Groningen Gas Field

Kaveh,

Batlle,

Acosta

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Reservoir operations related to natural gas extraction, fluid disposal, carbon diox- ide storage, or geothermal energy production, are capable of inducing seismicity. Mod- eling tools have been developed that allow for quantitative forecasting of seismicity based on operations data, but the computational cost of such models and the difficulty in rep- resenting various sources of uncertainties make uncertainty quantification challenging. We address this issue in the context of an integrated modeling framework, which com- bines reservoir modeling, geomechanical modeling, and stress-based earthquake forecast- ing. We use the Groningen gas field as a case example of application. The modeling frame- work is computationally efficient thanks to a 2-D finite-element reservoir model which assumes vertical flow equilibrium, and the use of semi-analytical solutions to calculate poroelastic stress changes and predict seismicity rate. The earthquake nucleation model is based on rate-and-state friction and allows for an initial strength excess so that the faults are not assumed initially critically stressed. The model parameters and their un- certainties are estimated using either a Poisson or a Gaussian likelihood. We investigate the effect of the likelihood choice on the forecast performance and we estimate uncer- tainties in the predicted number of earthquakes as well as in the expected magnitudes. We use a synthetic catalog to estimate the improved forecasting performance that would have resulted from a better seismicity detection threshold. Finally, we use tapered and non-tapered Gutenberg-Richter distributions to evaluate the most probable maximum magnitude over time and account for uncertainties in its estimation. We show that the framework yields realistic estimates of the seismicity model uncertainties and is appli- cable for operational forecasting or to design induced seismicity monitoring. It could also serve as a basis for probabilistic traffic-light systems.

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Section: Data and Resourcementioning

confidence: 99%

Induced Seismicity Forecasting with Uncertainty Quantification: Application to the Groningen Gas Field

Kaveh,

Batlle,

Acosta

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Laboratory study of fracture initiation and propagation in Barre granite under fluid pressure at stress state close to failure

Casanova²,

Einstein³

2023

Journal of Rock Mechanics and Geotechnical Engineering

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InSAR- and PCA-Based Inversion Reveals the Surface Deformation and Earthquake Sequence in the Weiyuan-Rongxian Shale Gas Field

Huo,

Xu,

Xie

et al. 2024

Remote Sensing

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In recent years, the rapid expansion and development of the shale gas industry in the Sichuan Basin has coincided with a series of unexpected moderate-sized earthquakes. Given that the Sichuan Basin is situated within a stable interior block, the focal mechanism of the 2019 earthquake sequence (ML4.7, ML5.4, and ML5.2) in the Weiyuan-Rongxian area remains a subject of debate. In this study, we propose a joint InSAR- and PCA- based inversion method utilizing the distributed Mogi model to investigate the spatial-temporal characteristics of a gas reservoir and evaluate the induced Coulomb stress change. The surface deformation derived from Sentinel-1 data between 2015 and 2021 was consistent with the spatial distribution of production wells, and it correlated with the temporal changes in reservoir volume associated with the shale gas operating process. The Coulomb stress loading on the regional faults suggests that human activities associated with shale gas operation likely triggered the three moderate earthquakes. Furthermore, our results indicate Coulomb stress loadings of 10 kPa, 15 kPa, 5 kPa, 3 kPa, and 87 kPa on the Dongxingchang fault, Gaoqiao fault, Dayaokou fault, Niujingao fault, and Lijiachang fold, respectively. Consequently, fluid injection and extraction during shale gas development could be contributing to the elevated seismic activity in the Weiyuan-Rongxian area.

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Surface Deformation and Seismicity Induced by Poroelastic Stress at the Raft River Geothermal Field, Idaho, USA

Cited by 3 publications

References 39 publications

Induced Seismicity Forecasting with Uncertainty Quantification: Application to the Groningen Gas Field

Induced Seismicity Forecasting with Uncertainty Quantification: Application to the Groningen Gas Field

Laboratory study of fracture initiation and propagation in Barre granite under fluid pressure at stress state close to failure

InSAR- and PCA-Based Inversion Reveals the Surface Deformation and Earthquake Sequence in the Weiyuan-Rongxian Shale Gas Field

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