Suppression or promotion: research on the impact of industrial structure upgrading on urban economic resilience

Abstract

Industrial The upgrading of industrial structure, as the main means of urban economic transformation, plays a crucial role in the process of achieving urban economic resilience construction. We conducted a study on the nonlinear impact mechanism of industrial structure upgrading on urban economic resilience based on panel data from 267 prefecture-level and above-level cities and above in China from 2008 to 2021, using globalization as a threshold variable. The obtained results demonstrated the following: (1) there existed a significant nonlinear relationship between industrial structure upgrading and rationalization and urban economic resilience, with a significant double threshold effect. (2) A robustness test was performed by removing extreme values from the sample, controlling for the time series and individual interaction terms while considering control variables, which did not change the basic conclusions based on the model. This demonstrated that the threshold regression model constructed in this study is robust and reliable. (3) From a regional heterogeneity perspective, the impact of industrial structure upgrading on urban economic resilience varied among different regions. Notably, industrial structure upgrading imposed a significant double threshold effect on urban economic resilience in the eastern and central regions, manifested as an inverted U-shaped trend. In the northeastern region, there was only a single threshold effect with globalization as the threshold variable, which still occurred on the left side of the inverted U-shaped curve, while no threshold effect was observed in the western region.