Suppression of large earthquakes by stress shadows: A comparison of Coulomb and rate‐and‐state failure

Harris, Ruth; Simpson, Robert W.

doi:10.1029/98jb00793

Cited by 270 publications

(195 citation statements)

References 45 publications

(30 reference statements)

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“…In particular, the 1911 M > 6.0 earthquake near Morgan Hill occurred in a stress shadow of the 1906 event that is in an unloaded area (ÁCFF < 0). Harris and Simpson [1998] found that rate-and-state time-to-failure calculations are consistent with the occurrence of the 1911 earthquake if the Calaveras fault was already close to failure before the 1906 event. In other words and in agreement with our results, a fault at the end of the earthquake cycle seems to be only slightly sensitive to external stress perturbations, the nucleation process being underway.…”

Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 56%

“…Such a feature has been previously noticed by Harris and Simpson [1998] considering the effect of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake on the seismicity of the bay area. In particular, the 1911 M > 6.0 earthquake near Morgan Hill occurred in a stress shadow of the 1906 event that is in an unloaded area (ÁCFF < 0).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 61%

“…The Coulomb failure criterion fails to estimate the clock advance or delay of faults at the end of the seismic cycle (the last 10% of the cycle) when loading (i.e., ÁCFF > 0) or unloading steps (i.e., ÁCFF < 0) are considered, as illustrated by Figure 6. This discrepancy is difficult to test in nature since, on the one hand, negative Coulomb stress changes result in a decrease of the seismicity rate, and are more difficult to observe statistically; indeed, it is easier to detect shocks than ''antishocks'' [Harris and Simpson, 1998]. On the other hand, for clock advance, departure from the Coulomb failure model is hidden by the limit of maximum clock advance T inter À t 0 .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…[3] Computation of the static Coulomb stress change [see King et al, 1994] after a major earthquake appears as a useful tool since it seems that an important percentage of the aftershocks lies in areas where the Coulomb stress has increased while seismicity seems to be reduced in the stress shadows [Harris and Simpson, 1998] where Coulomb stress decreases. Even though this static tool has been successful in modeling the earthquake sequence of Landers [King et al, 1994] and on the North Anatolian fault [Stein et al, 1997], it fails to explain the existence of triggered seismicity at large distances from the Landers epicenter [e.g., Gomberg et al, 2001], where the static stress changes are negligible.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Shear and normal load perturbations on a two‐dimensional continuous fault: 1. Static triggering

2003

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[1] The influence of normal and shear stress static perturbations on a strike-slip fault is addressed on the basis of a two-dimensional continuous and quasi-dynamic model. Friction along the fault plane is described using a rate-and-state friction law with depth variable properties. Normal and shear stress perturbations result in similar effects in terms of earthquake triggering if Át À m * Ás is constant, Át and Ás being the amplitude of the shear and normal stress fluctuations, respectively, and m * being a constant which can be interpreted as the static friction coefficient on the fault in a Coulomb failure model. Therefore the Coulomb stress change ÁCFF = Át À m * Ás is a useful tool to account simultaneously for normal and shear stress variations in our model. We also show that when estimating the clock advance or clock delay of an earthquake, the simple Coulomb failure model is at first order in good agreement with our results during the first 90% of the earthquake cycle. However, it differs significantly during the last 10% due to the sharp velocity increase predicted by the rate-and-state friction law before rupture. This suggests that as long as static variations of stress are concerned, realistic fault models using rich, laboratory-based, friction laws like rate-and-state friction laws may lead to predictions fairly close to the ones made using one of the simplest failure model, i.e., the Coulomb failure model. This may explain why Coulomb stress change computations, although often based on drastic approximations, have been able in many occasions to explain earthquake triggering sequences.INDEX TERMS: 7209 Seismology: Earthquake dynamics and mechanics; 7215 Seismology: Earthquake parameters; 7260 Seismology: Theory and modeling; KEYWORDS: earthquake triggering, static triggering, Coulomb stress change, rate and state friction laws, clock advance/delay Citation: Perfettini, H., J. Schmittbuhl, and A. Cochard, Shear and normal load perturbations on a two-dimensional continuous fault: 1.

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Section: Discussionsupporting

confidence: 56%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 61%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Shear and normal load perturbations on a two‐dimensional continuous fault: 1. Static triggering

2003

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“…On the other hand, that the stress changes due to a slip can explain the mechanism of triggering another event, has been getting more attention than ever [Reasenberg and Simpson, 1992;King et al, 1994;Stein, 1999;. More importantly, shear stress changes in a receiver fault system, transferred from a rupture or silent slip elsewhere, can cause seismic changes in the region [Harris and Simpson, 1998;Ogata et al, 2003;Ogata, 2004cOgata, , 2004d. Specifically, the quiescence can be found in the shadow zone where Coulomb's failure stress (CFS; defined below) has a negative increment due to a seismic or aseismic slip nearby, especially well seen in such a region where the activity has been high, including aftershock activity itself.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Detection of anomalous seismicity as a stress change sensor

Ogata

2005

J. Geophys. Res.

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[1] Anomalous seismicity such as quiescence and activation is defined by a systematic deviation of seismic activity from the predicted rate by the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model that represents the normal occurrence rate of earthquakes in a region indicating the empirical triggering effect by the previous events. The model is fitted to a data set of origin times and magnitudes of earthquakes or aftershocks during MayAugust 2003 in and around northern Japan. The detected quiescence and activation relative to the predicted seismicity rate are consistent with the coseismic changes of Coulomb failure stress (CFS) in the corresponding regions, transferred from certain strong earthquakes. Few results in this paper agree with the claim that there should be a threshold value of DCFS capable of affecting seismic changes. Thus we expect that significant deviation of actual activity from the predicted rates is sensitive enough to detect a slight stress change. Furthermore, I offer a similar interpretation of the detected seismicity lowering relative to the modeled rates preceding the strong earthquakes, assuming some aseismic slips.Citation: Ogata, Y. (2005), Detection of anomalous seismicity as a stress change sensor,

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Quantitative description of induced seismic activity before and after the 2011 Tohoku‐Oki earthquake by nonstationary ETAS models

Kumazawa

Ogata

2013

JGR Solid Earth

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[1] The epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model is extended for application to nonstationary seismic activity, including transient swarm activity or seismicity anomalies, in a seismogenic region. The time-dependent rates of both background seismicity and aftershock productivity in the ETAS model are optimally estimated from hypocenter data. These rates can provide quantitative evidence for abrupt or gradual changes in shear stress and/or fault strength due to aseismic transient causes such as triggering by remote earthquakes, slow slips, or fluid intrusions within the region. This extended model is applied to data sets from several seismic events including swarms that were induced by the M9.0 Tohoku-Oki earthquake of 2011.Citation: Kumazawa, T., and Y. Ogata (2013), Quantitative description of induced seismic activity before and after the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake by nonstationary ETAS models,

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Suppression of large earthquakes by stress shadows: A comparison of Coulomb and rate‐and‐state failure

Cited by 270 publications

References 45 publications

Shear and normal load perturbations on a two‐dimensional continuous fault: 1. Static triggering

Shear and normal load perturbations on a two‐dimensional continuous fault: 1. Static triggering

Detection of anomalous seismicity as a stress change sensor

Quantitative description of induced seismic activity before and after the 2011 Tohoku‐Oki earthquake by nonstationary ETAS models

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