Supporting security and adequacy in future energy systems: The need to enhance long-term energy system models to better treat issues related to variability

Welsch, Manuel; Howells, Mark; Hesamzadeh, Mohammad Reza; Gallachóir, Brian Ó; Deane, Paul; Strachan, Neil; Bazilian, Morgan; Kammen, Daniel M.; Jones, Lawrence E.; Štrbac, Goran; Rogner, Holger

doi:10.1002/er.3250

Cited by 60 publications

(42 citation statements)

References 56 publications

(73 reference statements)

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“…However, generating electricity that increasingly relies on variable renewable energy sources requires technologies for balancing supply and demand, for example, flexible power plants, storage systems and demand-side management [5][6][7][8][9][10][11][12]. Biogas plants are one option to generate power in a flexible way [8], so that variable, renewable energy sources can be integrated into the energy system.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Flexible power generation scenarios for biogas plants operated in Germany: impacts on economic viability and GHG emissions

Lauer

Dotzauer

Hennig

et al. 2016

Int. J. Energy Res.

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SUMMARYBiogas plants enable power to be generated in a flexible way so that variable, renewable energy sources can be integrated into the energy system. In Germany, the Renewable Energy Sources Act promotes flexible power generation in biogas plants. Two existing biogas plants in flexible operation were analyzed with respect to economic viability and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions to assess the feasibility of flexible operation. To do this, a biogas technology simulation model was developed to reproduce the technical design of both biogas plants and to link this design with twelve flexibilization scenarios. The evaluation of the economic viability is based on a discounting method of investment appraisal. For assessing the level of GHG emissions, the life cycle assessment method has been applied. The results show that the profitability of flexibilization is contingent upon premium payments promoting flexibility and direct sales resulting from a higher electrical efficiency of new or additionally installed combined heat and power units. Overall, with respect to profitability, the results of the flexible power generation scenarios are dependent upon the properties of the technical plant, such as its power generation and gas storage capacities. Relative GHG emissions from flexible biogas plants show significantly lower values than for referenced fossil gas-steam power stations. Among the various scenarios, the results reveal that the level of GHG emissions especially depends on the number of operating hours of the additional combined heat and power unit(s). The results of the analyzed biogas plants showed no direct correlation between GHG emissions and the economic benefits. Overall, a flexible power generation of biogas plants may improve the economic viability as well as result in lower GHG emissions in comparison with a conventional base load operation.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Flexible power generation scenarios for biogas plants operated in Germany: impacts on economic viability and GHG emissions

Lauer

Dotzauer

Hennig

et al. 2016

Int. J. Energy Res.

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show abstract

“…In [67], a bi-directional soft-link is used, but no information is provided on the details of the feedback from the UCED model to the ESOM. As stated in [68], this feedback mechanism is often ignored. In [14], maximum investment in wind generation capacity is restricted if annual curtailment of wind generation exceeds 10% of the expected annual wind generation.…”

Section: State Of the Art Methodologiesmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The provision of positive reserves may not be dependent on the online capacities, since some technologies can ramp-up fast enough to provide positive reserve without the need for any plants to be online. Following the approach presented in [68] a power plant can be classified into one of the following three categories with respect to the provision of primary and secondary reserve, given that the analyst has specified the time horizon associated with each reserve type:…”

Section: Modelling Ancillary Services Markets In Long-term Energy Sysmentioning

confidence: 99%

Integrating short term variations of the power system into integrated energy system models: A methodological review

Collins

Deane

Poncelet

et al. 2017

Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews

231

145

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It is anticipated that the decarbonisation of the entire energy system will require the introduction of large shares of variable renewable electricity generation into the power system. Long term integrated energy systems models are useful in improving our understanding of decarbonisation but they struggle to take account of short term variations in the power system associated with increased variable renewable energy penetration. This can oversimplify the ability of power systems to accommodate variable renewables and result in mistaken signals regarding the levels of flexibility required in power systems. Capturing power system impacts of variability within integrated energy system models is challenging due to temporal and technical simplifying assumptions needed to make such models computationally manageable. This paper addresses a gap in the literature by reviewing prominent methodologies that have been applied to address this challenge and the advantages & limitations of each. The methods include soft linking between integrated energy systems models and power systems models and improving the temporal and technical representation of power systems within integrated energy systems models. Each methodology covered approaches the integration of short term variations and assesses the flexibility of the system differently. The strengths, limitations, and applicability of these different methodologies are analysed. This review allows users of integrated energy systems models to select a methodology (or combination of methodologies) to suit their needs. In addition, the analysis identifies remaining gaps and shortcomings.

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“…This was followed by algorithm examination of their correctness. The model was then also validated against the observed trends as suggested by Forrester [34], Kumar [53], Welch et al [54]. The built scenarios were also compared with results computed using other energy models such as LCA [4].…”

Section: Feedstock Supply and Electricity Production Sub Modelmentioning

confidence: 99%

An integrated approach for modeling the electricity value of a sugarcane production system

et al. 2016

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Electricity value of a sugarcane industrial ecosystem is modeled using a SSD model. Bagasse and trash can provide highest efficiency in electricity generation. Projected bio-derived electricity generation can substantially reduce emissions. Proposed approach broadens the understanding of bio-derived electricity generation. a b s t r a c tThe spatial system dynamics model (SSDM) of sugarcane industrial ecosystem presented in this paper is towards an integrated approach to simulate a bio refinery system suggesting directions for bagasse and trash-derived electricity generation. The model unpacks the complexity in bio-derived energy generation across the conversion pathways of the system from land use change, sugarcane production, and harvesting and electricity production amid a plethora of challenges in the system. Input data for land use and sugarcane production in the model were derived from remote sensing and spatial analysis. Simulated and validated results indicate that the alternative scenario of combined bagasse and trash with enhanced mechanisation and technology efficiency provides the highest efficiency in terms of electricity generation and emission avoidance compared to the business as usual or base case scenario. The applied SSDM demonstrates that modeling of feedback-based complex dynamic processes in time and space provide better insights crucial for decision making. This model provides a foundation for the broader study for cost benefit analysis of electricity production from a sugarcane industrial ecosystem.

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Supporting security and adequacy in future energy systems: The need to enhance long-term energy system models to better treat issues related to variability

Cited by 60 publications

References 56 publications

Flexible power generation scenarios for biogas plants operated in Germany: impacts on economic viability and GHG emissions

Flexible power generation scenarios for biogas plants operated in Germany: impacts on economic viability and GHG emissions

Integrating short term variations of the power system into integrated energy system models: A methodological review

An integrated approach for modeling the electricity value of a sugarcane production system

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