Supporting IWRM through spatial integrated assessment in the Lake Naivasha basin, Kenya

Oel, Pieter van; Odongo, V.O.; Mulatu, D.W.; Muthoni, Francis; Ndungu, J.N.; Ogada, Job Ochieng; Veen, A. van der

doi:10.1080/07900627.2014.920248

Cited by 12 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 39 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Water shortage was calculated by dividing the available water in an areal unit of analysis by its population. For each zoning, we then calculated the total population under high water shortage, i.e., where the water availability is less than 1000 m 3 /cap/year in line with [27]. In addition, we calculated the average value of the water shortage indicator for each grid cell, based on the values from 21 different zonings.…”

Section: Water Shortage Calculationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Exploring the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem in Spatial Water Assessments: A Case of Water Shortage in Monsoon Asia

Salmivaara

Porkka

Kummu

et al. 2015

Water

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Water shortage (availability per capita) is a key indicator of vulnerability to water scarcity. Spatial datasets enable the assessment of water shortage on multiple scales. The use of river basins and subbasins as analysis and management units is currently commonplace. An important but less acknowledged fact is that spatial assessments are strongly influenced by the choice of the unit of analysis due to the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem (MAUP). Climate conditions, agricultural activities, and access to groundwater also influence water availability and demand. In this study, a total of 21 different criteria were used to define areal units of analysis, i.e., zonings, for which water shortage was calculated. Focusing on Monsoon Asia, where water scarcity is a pressing problem, we found that zoning had a considerable impact, resulting in up to three-fold differences in the population under high water shortage (<1000 m 3 /cap/year), ranging from 782 million to 2.11 billion. In most zonings, however, the Indus and Yellow River Basins and northwest parts of India and China are under high water shortage. The study indicates that a multizonal and multiscale analysis is needed to minimize skewed or even misleading information that might be produced when using only one zoning.

show abstract

Section: Water Shortage Calculationsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Spatial assessments are used to support the management of water resources and the environment [1][2][3][4][5][6][7][8]. Spatially varying distribution of population growth, changing water consumption, and changing climate have made water scarcity one of the key concerns in the world [4,9].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Exploring the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem in Spatial Water Assessments: A Case of Water Shortage in Monsoon Asia

Salmivaara

Porkka

Kummu

et al. 2015

Water

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…Lake Naivasha (Fig. 1) is a fragile (and degraded) endorheic lake ecosystem supporting a rich variety of flora and fauna [11,57]. Economic developments in the area are strongly connected to the lake ecosystem and the hydrological processes in the Lake Naivasha basin (3400 km 2 ; [34,37]).…”

Section: The Lake Naivasha Basinmentioning

confidence: 99%

Using Data on Social Influence and Collective Action for Parameterizing a Geographically-Explicit Agent-Based Model for the Diffusion of Soil Conservation Efforts

Oel

Mulatu

Odongo

et al. 2018

Environ Model Assess

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Social influence affects individual decision-making on soil conservation. Understanding the emergent diffusion of collective conservation effort is relevant to natural resource management at the river basin level. This study focuses on the effect of subjective norms and collective action on the diffusion of Soil Conservation Effort (SCE) in the Lake Naivasha basin (Kenya) for the period 1965-2010. A geographically-explicit Agent-Based Model (ABM) version of the CONSUMAT model was developed: the CONSERVAT model. In our model, we have represented heterogeneity in the physical environment and in the social network using empirical data. To parameterize the model, physical data, and social data from a household survey (n = 307) were used. Model simulation results show that it is possible to reproduce empirical spatiotemporal diffusion patterns of SCE levels which are quite sensitive to the way in which social survey data are used to initialize the model. Overall, this study demonstrates (i) that social survey data can effectively be used for parameterization of a geographically-explicit ABM, and (ii) that empirical knowledge on natural environment characteristics and social phenomena can be used to build an agent-based model at the river basin level. This study is an important first step towards including subjective norms for evaluating the effectiveness of alternative policy strategies for natural resource management.

show abstract

“…Figure 1-1: Schematization of key indicators of sustainability assessed in the Earth Observation and Integrated Assessment of Lake Naivasha (EOIA) project (van Oel et al, 2014). ................................................................................................................. Figure 5-4: Downstream cascade driven mainly by horticultural sector and population increase impacting the eco-hydrological system of the basin.…”

Section: List Of Figuresmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…The project aimed at combining information from EO with standard secondary data, to allow for physical and social analyses necessary to allow stakeholders deliberate about their common future. The scientific tool applied a system description based on an Integrated Assessment (IA) that aimed at integrating knowledge over a range of relevant disciplines (Figure 1-1), with the aim of providing new information on how complex real-world systems might behave, thus enabling sound decision-making (van Oel et al, 2014). Cross-sectoral implications that might be missed in more traditional assessments can therefore be more explicitly explored in ways that are meaningful to stakeholders.…”

Section: Integrated Assessment Of Lake Naivasha Basinmentioning

confidence: 99%

How climate and land use determine the hydrology of Lake Naivasha Basin

Odongo¹

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Recent hydro-climatological trends and variability characteristics were investigated for the Lake Naivasha Basin with the aim of understanding the changes in water balance components and their evolution over the past 50 years. Using Bayesian change point analysis proposed by Barry and Hartigan (1993) and modified Mann-Kendall tests time series of annual mean, maximum, minimum, and seasonal precipitation and flow, as well as annual mean lake volumes were analyzed for the period 1960-2010 to uncover possible abrupt shifts and gradual trends. Double cumulative curve analysis was used to investigate changes in hydrological response attributable to either human influence or climatic variability. The results indicate a significant decline in lake volumes at a mean rate of 9.35×10 6 m 3 year-1. Most of the river gauging stations showed no evidence of trends in the annual mean and maximum flows as well as seasonal flows. Annual minimum flows, however, showed abrupt shifts and significant (upward/downward) trends at the main outlet stations. Precipitation in the basin showed no evidence of abrupt shifts, but a few stations showed gradual decline. The observed changes in precipitation could not explain the decline in both minimum flows and lake volumes. The findings show no evidence of any impact of climate change for the Lake Naivasha basin over the past 50 years. This implies that other factors, such as changes in land cover and infrastructure development, have been responsible for the observed changes in stream flow and lake volumes.

show abstract

Supporting IWRM through spatial integrated assessment in the Lake Naivasha basin, Kenya

Cited by 12 publications

References 39 publications

Exploring the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem in Spatial Water Assessments: A Case of Water Shortage in Monsoon Asia

Exploring the Modifiable Areal Unit Problem in Spatial Water Assessments: A Case of Water Shortage in Monsoon Asia

Using Data on Social Influence and Collective Action for Parameterizing a Geographically-Explicit Agent-Based Model for the Diffusion of Soil Conservation Efforts

How climate and land use determine the hydrology of Lake Naivasha Basin

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About