Supporting Electrification Policy in Fragile States: A Conflict-Adjusted Geospatial Least Cost Approach for Afghanistan

Abstract

Roughly two billion people live in areas that regularly suffer from conflict, violence, and instability. Infrastructure development in those areas is very difficult to implement and fund. As an example, electrification systems face major challenges such as ensuring the security of the workforce or reliability of power supply. This paper presents electrification results from an explorative methodology, where the costs and risks of conflict are explicitly considered in a geo-spatial, least cost electrification model. Discount factor and risk premium adjustments are introduced per technology and location in order to examine changes in electrification outlooks in Afghanistan. Findings indicate that the cost optimal electrification mix is very sensitive to the local context; yet, certain patterns emerge. Urban populations create a strong consumer base for grid electricity, in some cases even under higher risk. For peri-urban and rural areas, electrification options are more sensitive to conflict-induced risk variation. In this paper, we identify these inflection points, quantify key decision parameters, and present policy recommendations for universal electrification of Afghanistan by 2030.

The role of regulatory, market and governance risk for electricity access investment in sub-Saharan Africa

“…The latter research has focused largely on techno-economic dimensions (Dagnachew et al, 2017;Ellman, 2015;Mentis et al, 2017;Moner-Girona et al, 2019), without explicitly encapsulating the heterogeneity in the investment environment quality. The only notable exercises that have begun taking this direction are the recent work in Korkovelos et al (2020), Spyrou, Hobbs, Bazilian, andChattopadhyay (2019), Patankar, de Queiroz, DeCarolis, Bazilian, and, who modelled the role of conflict in electrification and power systems planning.…”

Strategic low-cost energy investment opportunities and challenges towards achieving universal electricity access (SDG7) in forty-eight African nations

“…The technology that can meet the demand at the lowest LCOE is selected as the least-cost technology option in that settlement [20]. The OnSSET tool has been used in national electrification studies (Malawi [48], Kenya [49], Tanzania [50], Afghanistan [51]) and regional electrification studies for the whole of sub-Saharan Africa ( [20,52]). The latest GEP explores least-cost electrification strategies for 58 countries [32].…”

Strategic low-cost energy investment opportunities and challenges towards achieving universal access (SDG7) in each African nation

“…Afghanistan [53]) and regional electri cation studies for the whole of Sub-Saharan Africa ( [20], [54]). The latest Global Electri cation Platform explores least-cost electri cation strategies for 58 countries [32].…”