Supply and demand: Will we have enough vascular surgeons by 2030?

Abstract

The increase in prevalence of certain cardiovascular risk factors increases susceptibility to vascular disease, which may create demand for surgical intervention. In our study, data collected by the American Association of Medical Colleges Physician Specialty Databook of 2012, the United States Census Bureau, and other nationwide organizations were referenced to calculate future changes in vascular surgeon supply and prevalence of people at risk for vascular disease. In 2010, there were 2853 active vascular surgeons. By 2040, the workforce is expected to linearly rise to 3573. There will be an exponential rise in people with cardiovascular risk factors. Adding to concern, in 2030, an estimated 3333 vascular surgeons will be available for 180,000,000 people with at least one risk factor for peripheral arterial disease. The paucity of properly trained surgeons entering the workforce needs to be addressed before this shortage becomes a larger burden on healthcare providers and governmental spending.

Defining the burden, scope, and future of vascular acute care surgery

“…Access to specialty vascular care and coverage will likely become progressively more critical because of the increasing burden of cardiovascular diseases and limited projected growth in the supply of vascular surgeons. 13 Several forces have converged to limit the availability of surgeons capable of providing acute vascular care. Historically, general surgeons have performed a large proportion of vascular procedures, 17,18 and several emergency vascular procedures remain core components of the general surgery residency curriculum.…”

“…10,11 There is a shortage of on-call vascular coverage for emergency departments, a situation that will become more severe as the burden of cardiovascular diseases continues to outgrow the supply of vascular surgeons. 12,13 There is also the risk of a younger generation of vascular specialists shifting toward predominantly outpatient, endovascular practices. Finally, changes in vascular surgical training and trends in the regionalization of complex surgical care may further limit the provision of quality acute vascular care.…”

Managing overlapping surgery: an analysis of 1018 neurosurgical and spine cases

“…4,6,18 Fueling the need to train tomorrow's surgeons is the steadily worsening shortage of health care professionals nationwide. 10,24,25 This shortage may be especially acute in neurosurgery, with the majority of counties in the United States having no neurosurgeons in practice. Access to highly subspecialized care is even more difficult, with only 13.4% of neurosurgeons identifying as neuro-oncology specialists, 5.2% as cerebrovascular specialists, and 0.7% as skull base specialists.…”

Vascular surgery is the best kept secret in medicine and my thoughts on how we can change that

“…Back in 1996, Jim Stanley predicted that, without the ability to increase the number of vascular surgical trainees, there would be more patients with vascular disease than there would be trained vascular surgeons to treat them. 7 A more recent paper by Williams et al, 8 looking out to 2030, confirms this ( Fig 5). The lack of supply has stemmed largely from our lack of control over residency and fellowship training.…”