Supplementing Environmental Assessments with Cumulative Effects Scenario Modeling for Grizzly Bear Connectivity in the Bow Valley, Alberta, Canada

Abstract

Persistence of sensitive wildlife in populated regions requires conservation strategies that address gradual expansion of development footprint and human activity. The project-based environmental assessment regime for municipal development is poorly suited to provide necessary strategic perspective, given its focus on local and short-term impacts. We used the ALCES cumulative effects model to strategically assess impacts to grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in the Bow Valley of Alberta, Canada. Landscape simulation mapped expansion of past and potential future development footprint in the region over multiple decades. Consequences to movement connectivity for grizzly bears were estimated by applying a least cost path analysis to the landscape simulation. An index of recreational activity was derived from fitness tracking data and integrated with the landscape simulation to model change in recreational activity through time. Maps of grizzly bear connectivity and recreational activity were combined to calculate human-bear conflict risk. The analysis suggests that connectivity has been altered through displacement to upslope areas by settlement expansion, such that surrounding natural areas have become important for grizzly bear connectivity. These areas are also popular for outdoor recreation, resulting in elevated human-bear conflict risk which can be expected to increase if development and human activity continue to expand in high connectivity areas. Conservation of wildlife in populated regions will be supported by broadening the scope of environmental assessment to address cumulative effects of development footprint and human activity over large spatial and temporal scales.

Advancements in monitoring: a comparison of traditional and application-based tools for measuring outdoor recreation

“…Strava Heatmap is a popular index of cumulative annual recreation intensity and is increasingly used as a proxy for human recreation (Jäger, Schirpke & Tappeiner, 2020; Corrandi et al,. 2021; Carlson et al, 2022). Previous research demonstrates that Strava Heatmap reflects the intensity of ski mountaineer activities from counting stations (Jäger et al, 2020).…”

“…Both humans and wildlife concentrate their activities along valley bottoms and as a result these areas are disproportionately affected by human development that can lead to human-wildlife occurrences, displacement of wildlife from habitats and loss of important wildlife corridors (Alberta Government, 2018). Mirroring many mountain towns in North America, the town of Canmore has undergone growth in their permanent population, development footprint and recreation sector (Alberta Government, 2018; Carlson et al, 2022), including the increase of the creation and use of informal recreation trails (Whittington et al, 2022). While monitoring and research on recreation patterns and impacts to wildlife has been identified as a research priority in the Bow Valley (Carlson et al 2022), this work is hampered by lack of current and detailed information on human recreation activities.…”

“…Strava Global Heatmap -Strava Global Heatmap (hereafter, Strava Heatmap; https://www.strava.com/heatmap) is a crowdsourced heatmap that uses GPS-based recreation tracks of public non-motorized recreation activities (run, hike, walk, ride, water, winter) recorded on phones, fitness watches, and GPS devices. Strava Heatmap is freely available, unlike Strava Metro, and has been used as an index of human recreation (Jäger, Schirpke & Tappeiner, 2020;Corradini et al, 2021;Carlson et al, 2022). The heatmap displays annual aggregated indices of public activities for each calendar year, with updates to the heatmap occurring monthly.…”

“…Mirroring many mountain towns in North America, the town of Canmore has undergone growth in their permanent population, development footprint and recreation sector (Alberta Government, 2018; Carlson et al, 2022), including the increase of the creation and use of informal recreation trails (Whittington et al, 2022). While monitoring and research on recreation patterns and impacts to wildlife has been identified as a research priority in the Bow Valley (Carlson et al 2022), this work is hampered by lack of current and detailed information on human recreation activities. While traditional tools, such as cameras and counters, have been used to monitor recreation in this area, application-based data from fitness tracking apps has been largely unexplored.…”

A modelling approach to inform regional cumulative effects assessment in northern Ontario

“…The cell-based modelling framework is flexible with respect to resolution and study area extent, such that it can be used at a range of spatial scales. However, the tool's ability to represent multiple drivers and simulate dynamics for extensive areas has seen the tool primarily used for large regions (thousands to hundreds of thousands of km 2 ) to inform land-use planning (Carlson and Stelfox, 2014), conservation planning (Carlson et al, 2019), and cumulative effects assessment (Carlson et al, 2022). While most applications, including those listed above,…”