Superstar Extinction^*

Abstract

We estimate the magnitude of spillovers generated by 112 academic "superstars" who died prematurely and unexpectedly, thus providing an exogenous source of variation in the structure of their collaborators' coauthorship networks. Following the death of a superstar, we find that collaborators experience, on average, a lasting 5% to 8% decline in their quality-adjusted publication rates. By exploring interactions of the treatment effect with a variety of star, coauthor, and star/coauthor dyad characteristics, we seek to adjudicate between plausible mechanisms that might explain this finding. Taken together, our results suggest that spillovers are circumscribed in idea space, but less so in physical or social space. In particular, superstar extinction reveals the boundaries of the scientific field to which the star contributes-the "invisible college." "Greater is the merit of the person who facilitates the accomplishments of others than of the person who accomplishes himself."Rabbi Eliezer, Babylonian Talmud, Tractate Baba Bathra 9a

Persistence and uncertainty in the academic career

“…In order to analyze the average properties of N i ðtÞ for all 300 scientists in our sample, we define the normalized trajectory Over this horizon, the stochastic arrival of career shocks can significantly alter the career trajectory (20,24,27,28). Each N 0 i ðtÞ exhibits robust scaling corresponding to the scaling law hN 0 ðtÞi ∼ tᾱ.…”

“…We calculateᾱ using OLS regression and plot the corresponding best-fit lines (dashed) for each dataset. (28,36,37) that are facilitated by the collaboration network (7,12,(38)(39)(40)(41)(42). Indeed, there is a tipping point in a scientific career that occurs when a scientist's knowledge investment reaches a critical mass that can sustain production over a long horizon, and when a scientist becomes an attractor (as opposed to a pursuer) of new collaboration/production opportunities.…”

“…Academic knowledge is typically a nonrival good, and so knowledge-intensive professions are characterized by spillovers, both over time and across collaborations (36,37), consistent with α i > 1 and ψ > 0. Interestingly, Azoulay, et al show evidence for production spillovers in the 5-8% decrease in output by scientists who were close collaborators with a "superstar" scientists who died suddenly (28).…”

Peer Effects in Science: Evidence from the Dismissal of Scientists in Nazi Germany

“…The coe¢ cient on the average quality of dismissed coauthors in column (2) indicates that losing a coauthor of average quality reduces the productivity of a physicist of average quality by about 13 percent. The results for chemists are reported in columns (3) and (4). The number of dismissed coauthors does not seem to play an important role for the productivity of chemists.…”

“…Thompson and Fox-Keane (2005) challenge those …ndings in a later paper. 4 In addition to papers analyzing peer e¤ects among university researchers there is a growing literature examining peer e¤ects in other, mostly low skill, work environments. Mas and Moretti (2008) show that grocery store cashiers increase their productivity when working alongside high productivity peers.…”