Super‐Droplet Method to Simulate Lagrangian Microphysics of Nuclear Fallout in a Homogeneous Cloud

Abstract

Nuclear detonations produce hazardous local and global particles or fallout. Predicting fallout size, chemical components, and location is necessary to inform officials and determine immediate guidance for the public. However, existing nuclear detonation fallout models prescribe the particle size distributions based on limited observations. In this work, we apply the super‐droplet method, which is a numerical modeling technique developed for cloud microphysics, to simulate size distributions of particles in a mushroom cloud formed post‐detonation of a nuclear device. We model fallout formation and evolution with homogeneous nucleation and condensation of a single species and a Monte Carlo coagulation algorithm. We verify the numerical methods representing coagulation and condensation processes against analytical test problems. Additionally, we explore several scenarios for the integral system mass and yield in equivalent kilotons (kt) of TNT (trinitrotoluene). The fallout size distribution median diameter dpg follows a scaling law based on the integral system mass mv0 kg and yield Y kt: dpg=0.647mv00.609/Y0.436 ${d}_{pg}=0.647{m}_{v0}^{0.609}/{Y}^{0.436}$ nm. We test the effect of cloud turbulence, enhanced nucleation and growth, and vapor volatility with a sensitivity study. The range in median diameter predictions for simulations of historical tests performed over the Pacific encompass the measurements of particles sampled from the cloud caps. Predicted median particle size ranges up to 217, 123, 86, and 35 nm for historical tests with yields of 0.2, 0.7, 2, and 10 Mt, respectively. This work can be expanded in many different directions to build a more predictive model for fallout formation.