Summer-time climate impacts of projected megapolitan expansion in Arizona

Georgescu, Matei; Moustaoui, Mohamed; Mahalov, Alex; Dudhia, Jimy

doi:10.1038/nclimate1656

Cited by 184 publications

(134 citation statements)

References 25 publications

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“…In parts of Arizona, urbanization -induced warming-commonly known as the urban heat-island effect-could boost temperatures by up to 7 °C in coming decades, nearly three times the predicted rise in temperature attributable to greenhouse gas emissions. 11 (See figure 4 for a visual illustration of the heat-island effect in London. )…”

Section: Unfamiliar Terrainmentioning

confidence: 99%

Land’s complex role in climate change

Pielke¹,

Mahmood²,

McAlpine³

2016

Physics Today

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Section: Unfamiliar Terrainmentioning

confidence: 99%

Land’s complex role in climate change

Pielke¹,

Mahmood²,

McAlpine³

2016

Physics Today

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“…Performing continental-scale simulations with a regional climate model, Millstein and Menon (2011) reported that nationwide large-scale cool roof deployment for the USA reduce the summertime air temperature by 0.1-0.5 • C in most urban locations. Similarly, Georgescu et al (2012Georgescu et al ( , 2013 reported that summertime statewide warming due to projected urban expansion for Arizona could be reduced by about 50 % with the complete integration of highly reflective cool roofs. More recently, have evaluated regional impacts of cool and green roof deployment for the Baltimore-Washington (USA) metropolitan area during an extreme heat event.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Citywide Impacts of Cool Roof and Rooftop Solar Photovoltaic Deployment on Near-Surface Air Temperature and Cooling Energy Demand

Salamanca

Georgescu

Mahalov

et al. 2016

Boundary-Layer Meteorol

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109

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Assessment of mitigation strategies that combat global warming, urban heat islands (UHIs), and urban energy demand can be crucial for urban planners and energy providers, especially for hot, semi-arid urban environments where summertime cooling demands are excessive. Within this context, summertime regional impacts of cool roof and rooftop solar photovoltaic deployment on near-surface air temperature and cooling energy demand are examined for the two major USA cities of Arizona: Phoenix and Tucson. A detailed physics-based parametrization of solar photovoltaic panels is developed and implemented in a multilayer building energy model that is fully coupled to the Weather Research and Forecasting mesoscale numerical model. We conduct a suite of sensitivity experiments (with different coverage rates of cool roof and rooftop solar photovoltaic deployment) for a 10-day clear-sky extreme heat period over the Phoenix and Tucson metropolitan areas at high spatial resolution (1-km horizontal grid spacing). Results show that deployment of cool roofs and rooftop solar photovoltaic panels reduce near-surface air temperature across the diurnal cycle and decrease daily citywide cooling energy demand. During the day, cool roofs are more effective at cooling than rooftop solar photovoltaic systems, but during the night, solar panels are more efficient at reducing the UHI effect. For the maximum coverage rate deployment, cool roofs reduced daily citywide cooling energy demand by 13-14 %, while rooftop solar photovoltaic panels by 8-11 % (without considering the additional savings derived from their electricity production). The results presented here demonstrate that deployment of both roofing technologies have multiple benefits for the urban environment, while solar photovoltaic panels add additional value because they reduce the dependence on fossil fuel consumption for electricity generation. Keywords

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“…Consumption and production of resources for use within urban environments have local and remote implications for ecosystem services, hydroclimate, energy provision, health, and other factors of human wellbeing (1,3). In semiarid regions, continued conversion of existing lands to urban landscapes has the potential to drive significant local and regional climate change, compounding global warming (4). At the same time, how cities choose to expand and develop will be critical to defining how successful society will be in adapting to global change.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

“…US population projections for 2100 range from 380 [a value likely to be surpassed by midcentury; current 2050 estimates indicate a US population of 422.5 million (7)] to 690 million inhabitants, leading to 208,000-261,000 km 2 of new urban land use relative to 2000 (5). Assessment of regional environmental impacts caused by urban expansion is essential before large-scale landscape modification to help guide and inform more sustainable pathways (4). Among these potential impacts are significant changes in climate.…”

mentioning

confidence: 99%

Urban adaptation can roll back warming of emerging megapolitan regions

Georgescu

Morefield

Bierwagen

et al. 2014

Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A.

422

250

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Modeling results incorporating several distinct urban expansion futures for the United States in 2100 show that, in the absence of any adaptive urban design, megapolitan expansion, alone and separate from greenhouse gas-induced forcing, can be expected to raise near-surface temperatures 1-2°C not just at the scale of individual cities but over large regional swaths of the country. This warming is a significant fraction of the 21st century greenhouse gas-induced climate change simulated by global climate models. Using a suite of regional climate simulations, we assessed the efficacy of commonly proposed urban adaptation strategies, such as green, cool roof, and hybrid approaches, to ameliorate the warming. Our results quantify how judicious choices in urban planning and design cannot only counteract the climatological impacts of the urban expansion itself but also, can, in fact, even offset a significant percentage of future greenhouse warming over large scales. Our results also reveal tradeoffs among different adaptation options for some regions, showing the need for geographically appropriate strategies rather than one size fits all solutions.sustainability | mitigation | land-use change | urbanization | urban climate

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Summer-time climate impacts of projected megapolitan expansion in Arizona

Cited by 184 publications

References 25 publications

Land’s complex role in climate change

Land’s complex role in climate change

Citywide Impacts of Cool Roof and Rooftop Solar Photovoltaic Deployment on Near-Surface Air Temperature and Cooling Energy Demand

Urban adaptation can roll back warming of emerging megapolitan regions

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