Summer precipitation prediction in the source region of the Yellow River using climate indices

Abstract

The summer precipitation from June to September in the source region of the Yellow River accounts for about 70% of the annual total, and its decrease would cause further water shortage problems. Consequently, the objectives of this study are to improve the understanding of the linkages between the precipitation in the source region of the Yellow River and global teleconnection patterns, and to predict the summer precipitation based on revealed teleconnections. Spatial variability of precipitation was investigated based on three homogeneous sub-regions. Principal component analysis and singular value decomposition were used to find significant relationships between the precipitation and global teleconnection patterns using climate indices. A back-propagation neural network was developed to predict the summer precipitation using significantly correlated climate indices. It was found that precipitation in the study area is positively related to North Atlantic Oscillation, West Pacific Pattern and El Niño Southern Oscillation, and inversely related to Polar Eurasian pattern. Summer precipitation was overall well predicted. The Pearson correlation coefficient between predicted and observed summer precipitation was, in general, larger than 0.6. The results can be used to predict the summer precipitation and to improve integrated water resources management in the Yellow River basin.

Impact of ENSO regimes on developing- and decaying-phase precipitation during rainy season in China

“…El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is one of the most important factors affecting precipitation, which has been achieved urgent attention worldwide (Li et al, 2016;Wang et al, 2006;Preethi et al, 2015;Yuan et al, 2016a, b;Zaroug et al, 2014;Brigode et al, 2013). Many researchers have studied various aspects of precipitation, such as seasonal precipitation and extreme precipitation (Jiang et al, 2016(Jiang et al, , 2013.…”

Spatiotemporal Variability of Extreme Summer Precipitation over the Yangtze River Basin and the Associations with Climate Patterns

“…The relationships between precipitation over East Asia and largescale climate patterns, such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO), were identified through the influence of atmospheric circulation [10][11][12][13][14]. However, the underlying dynamics are various for these teleconnections of climate patterns and the seasonal precipitation.…”

Integrated large‐scale circulation impact on rainy season precipitation in the source region of the Yangtze River

“…(), and Yuan et al . () over the neighbouring areas of Tibet Plateau regarding the influence of ENSO and PDO on precipitation in this area. Associations were further visualized in Figure , as PC1 showed consistency with inverse PDO index and SOI index.…”

“…,Tian et al (2016), andYuan et al (2015) over the neighbouring areas of Tibet Plateau regarding the influence of ENSO and PDO on precipitation in this area. Associations were furtherF I G U R E 3 Spatial distribution of rainy season precipitation in SRYR: (a) average precipitation; (b) trend; cross denotes significant trend at p < .05 [Colour figure can be viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com] F I G U R E 4 Scree plot of PCA analysis [Colour figure can be viewed at wileyonlinelibrary.com]…”