Summer monsoon over northeastern India during the last millennium

Abstract

Analysing three high resolution coupled model simulations for the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA) and Little Ice Age (LIA) regimes, available as the last millennium simulations of the PMIP3, we find that Northeastern Indian summer monsoon rainfall (NEISMR) did not change appreciably from the MCA to the LIA. This is in contrast to the signals in the rest of the Indian region. Our results from all the models suggest that, during the MCA, the simulated 100‐hPa tropical easterly jet (TEJ) becomes relatively more intense than that during LIA, due to a stronger Tibetan High. This strengthening of the TEJ results in an associated increase in relative vorticity at the 500 hPa over the Head Bay of Bengal and neighbouring east coast of the Bay of Bengal. This results in higher moisture availability and increased summer monsoon rainfall in the neighbourhood, including the central Indian region, during the MCA. However, the simulations do not show any such changes over northeastern India, indicating a relatively stable simulated NEISMR from MCA through LIA. Furthermore, just as the current day observations, the simulated correlations between the NEISMR with various concurrent ENSO indices are weak and statistically insignificant during the MCA and LIA regimes. Interestingly, an analysis of time‐slice simulations for the MCA and LIA from an atmospheric general circulation model broadly agree with the above conclusions, indicating that the tropical ocean and atmospheric coupling may not have played a major role in the northeast climate.

Causes of decadal distributions of Indian summer monsoon rainfall during the last 1500 years

“…Thus, an increased (reduced) gradient of land–sea thermal contrast strengthens (weakens) ISMR over the corresponding landmass (Lindzen and Nigam, 1987; Man and Zhou, 2014). The influence of EXFs on the Tibetan High may also cause decadal changes in the intensity of ISMR covering most of India over the LM by modulating the 100‐hPa tropical easterly jet (Ashok et al , 2022).…”