Summer hot extremes and antecedent drought conditions in Australia

Páscoa, Patrícia; Gouveia, Célia; Russo, Ana; Ribeiro, Andreia

doi:10.1002/joc.7544

Cited by 13 publications

(24 citation statements)

References 77 publications

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“…The Standardized Precipitation Evaporation Index (SPEI) [63] computed with the time scale of 1 month was found to be highly correlated with soil moisture in the study area [64] and was used as a proxy for soil moisture, following previous studies [30,37,47,55]. Moreover, when correlated to NHD and NHN in the Mediterranean region, SPEI yielded similar spatial patterns and correlation values to the results of the Standardized Precipitation Index.…”

Section: Drought Indexsupporting

confidence: 54%

“…Therefore, heatwaves in Australia have been shown to be associated with large-scale circulation patterns and land surface conditions [52]. The relationship between soil moisture and drought conditions makes drought indices good proxies for soil moisture, and these indices have been used in studies of the relationship between drought and hot events [26,30,35,37,39,47].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

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Compound drought and hot events assessment in Australia using copula functions

Páscoa,

Gouveia,

Ribeiro

et al. 2024

Environ. Res. Commun.

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The occurrence of compound drought and hot events has been shown to cause stronger socio-economic, environmental and health impacts than the isolated events. Moreover, the frequency of these compound events has increased unevenly throughout and is expected to keep increasing in several regions of the world. In this work, an assessment of compound drought and hot events in the summer months in Australia was made, using copula functions. Drought and hot conditions were identified by the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the indices Number of Hot Days (NHD) and Number of Hot Nights (NHN) for the summer months, respectively. We analysed drought conditions in the current and the previous 1 to 3 months and the periods 1950-1978 and 1979-2020. The results show that the conditional probability of the occurrence of hot events given drought conditions is very high for the concurrent month in most of the study area, reaching 0.9 in some cases. Considering previous drought conditions, the higher probabilities are obtained in the southeastern region in December and in the north in February, but on most of the study area these values are higher than for the case of non-drought conditions, pointing to an effect of previous drought conditions on hot events of up to 3 months. Moreover, an increased frequency of compound drought and hot events from the first to the second period was identified in more than half of the study area for lags 1 and 2.We show that, although the conditional probabilities are mostly higher when computed with NHD, NHN is also affected by drought conditions, and should also be considered in this analysis, since nights can have a relieving contribution when impacts in health and wildfires are being analysed.

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Section: Drought Indexsupporting

confidence: 54%

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Compound drought and hot events assessment in Australia using copula functions

Páscoa,

Gouveia,

Ribeiro

et al. 2024

Environ. Res. Commun.

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“…In particular, compound droughts and heatwaves (CDHWs) have attracted increased attention in recent years [4][5][6][7], due to the significant impact that they can have upon society and the environment [8][9][10]. Global warming has exacerbated the occurrence of drought and heatwave events [11], especially in North America, Asia, Europe, and Australia. The findings of several recent studies have shown that the frequency and severity of CDHWs are increasing [12][13][14][15].…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Increased Compound Droughts and Heatwaves in a Double Pack in Central Asia

Wang

Chen

et al. 2022

Remote Sensing

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Compound droughts and heatwaves (CDHWs) are likely to cause more severe natural disasters than a single extreme event, and they have been exacerbated by rapid global warming. Based on high-resolution grid data, this study combines the daily-scale ERA5-Land dataset and the monthly-scale SPEI dataset with multiple indicators to analyze CDHWs. We calculated and analyzed the temporal and spatial modal distribution of CDHWs in Central Asia from 1981 to 2018, and in this paper, we discuss the sequence relationship between drought events, heatwave events, and CDHWs. The results show that the number of CDHWs in the study region have increased over time and expanded in terms of area, especially in eastern and southwestern Central Asia. The tsum (total frequency of CDHWs) was 0.5 times higher than the total heatwave frequency and it increased at a rate of 0.17/yr. The maximum duration of tmax (maximum duration of CDHWs in days) was 17 days. Furthermore, the occurrence rate of tmax was 96.67%, and the AH (CDHWs’ accumulated heat) had a rate of 97.78%, which, upon examination of the spatial trend pattern, accounted for the largest increase in terms of area. We also found that the TAH (CDHWs’ average temperature anomalies, SPEI < −0.5) shows obvious seasonality, with the increases in winter and spring being significantly greater than the increases in summer and autumn. The intensity of the CDHWs was stronger than that of a single extreme event, the temperature anomaly was higher than the average of 0.4–0.8 °C, and there was a north–south spatial pattern across the study region. In eastern and northwestern Central Asia, the AH and heatwaves (SPEI < −0.5) increased by 15–30 times per year on average. During the transition from the base period to the reference period, CDHWs increased by 25%, and the number of dry days prior to the CDHWs decreased by 7.35 days. The conclusion of our study can provide a theoretical basis for coping with climate change in arid zones.

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“…56,65 Over the course of the last two decades, evidence of CDHW events has been well documented regionally, mainly for the northern hemisphere, and their impacts on vegetation, vegetation fires, and human health have been studied extensively in North America, [66][67][68][69][70] Asia, [71][72][73][74][75] and Europe. [76][77][78][79][80][81][82][83] Although CDHW occurrences have been amplified considerably during the 21st century in both hemispheres, 54,84 compound events analysis in the southern hemisphere is still underexplored and poorly understood, despite the recent efforts conducted for Australia 85,86 and some sectors of Brazil. 33,87,88 Accordingly, few studies have been devoted to the characterization, modeling, and impact evaluation of these compound events over South America (SA), despite its size (i.e., larger than Europe or Australia) and a large number of densely populated regions.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Drought–heatwave nexus in Brazil and related impacts on health and fires: A comprehensive review

Libonati

Geirinhas

Silva

et al. 2022

Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences

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Climate change is drastically altering the frequency, duration, and severity of compound drought‐heatwave (CDHW) episodes, which present a new challenge in environmental and socioeconomic sectors. These threats are of particular importance in low‐income regions with growing populations, fragile infrastructure, and threatened ecosystems. This review synthesizes emerging progress in the understanding of CDHW patterns in Brazil while providing insights about the impacts on fire occurrence and public health. Evidence is mounting that heatwaves are becoming increasingly linked with droughts in northeastern and southeastern Brazil, the Amazonia, and the Pantanal. In those regions, recent studies have begun to build a better understanding of the physical mechanisms behind CDHW events, such as the soil moisture–atmosphere coupling, promoted by exceptional atmospheric blocking conditions. Results hint at a synergy between CDHW events and high fire activity in the country over the last decades, with the most recent example being the catastrophic 2020 fires in the Pantanal. Moreover, we show that HWs were responsible for increasing mortality and preterm births during record‐breaking droughts in southeastern Brazil. This work paves the way for a more in‐depth understanding on CDHW events and their impacts, which is crucial to enhance the adaptive capacity of different Brazilian sectors.

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Summer hot extremes and antecedent drought conditions in Australia

Cited by 13 publications

References 77 publications

Compound drought and hot events assessment in Australia using copula functions

Compound drought and hot events assessment in Australia using copula functions

Increased Compound Droughts and Heatwaves in a Double Pack in Central Asia

Drought–heatwave nexus in Brazil and related impacts on health and fires: A comprehensive review

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