Summary of the systems prioritization method as a decision-aiding method for the waste isolation pilot plant

Abstract

THE SPMAPPROACHThe goal of SPM was to provide information about how potential activities-twenty-one scientific investigations, three engineered alternatives, and two waste acceptance criteria-when viewed singly or in combination, codd contribute to a demonstration of compliance with EPA long-term performance requirements for the WIPP disposal system:4 For each activity set (a combination of activities), SPM calculated the probability of demonstrating compliance (PDC) if the activity set was implemented, along with the activity set's projected cost and duration.These performance measures (PDC, cost and duration) were contained in a decision matrix t h a t was analyzed to find programmatic options that maximized incremental PDC while minimizing activity set cost and duration. SNL performance assessment models were used to estimate how the disposal system might perform if activities were implemented, and this evaluation. was the basis for calculating an activity set's PDC. SPM analyzed roughly 46,700 activity sets. Probabilistic performance calculations for these activity sets resulted in over 1.3 million complementary cumulative distribution functions (CCDFs).

Sandia National Laboratories performance assessment methodology for long-term environmental programs : the history of nuclear waste management.

“…As described by Boak et al (1996), and as illustrated in the overview to the SNL PA methodology in Figure 9 (see Section 1.2.3), SPM can be outlined in eleven steps:…”

“…The analysis indicated that a demonstration of compliance could be anticipated within the DOE WIPP schedule. These eight activities were completed in support of and their outcome reflected in the successful 1996 Compliance Certification Application (Boak, Prindle, et al 1997). …”

“…SPM built upon the power of both PA and decision analysis techniques, focusing on work to achieve compliance with long-term disposal system performance requirements and helping to eliminate concerns that program activities were not clearly and demonstrably focused on addressing regulatory and safety issues (Boak, Prindle, et al 1997). …”

“…Results of the 1992 WIPP PA led DOE to conclude that the site was suitable for the disposal of TRU waste, and DOE proceeded on a path to certification under the EPA regulations. To facilitate this process, SNL developed a performance-based decision-aiding tool called the Systems Prioritization Method (SPM) (Boak, Prindle, et al 1997), using it beginning in 1994 to assist in programmatic prioritization as the WIPP project transitioned from science to compliance. The Compliance Certification Application (CCA) was submitted to the EPA in October 1996 (DOE 1996), and in 1999 WIPP became the first deep geologic repository certified in the U.S. to permanently dispose of TRU waste generated from the research and production of nuclear weapons, receiving its first waste shipment on March 26, 1999.…”