Summaries, Analysis and Simulations of Recent COVID-19 Epidemic in Shanghai

Lee, Min

doi:10.1101/2022.05.15.22273842

Cited by 4 publications

(9 citation statements)

References 14 publications

Supporting

Mentioning

Contrasting

Order By: Relevance

“…Even on day 90 (March 30), the blocking rates only reach about 87.6% and 39.0% (see Table 1), respectively. However, for the first and second epidemics in Beijing and the five wave epidemics in Shanghai, the blocking rates reached to over 95% in one month [14–16].…”

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…A recommendation is that the administration should at least maintain the prevention and control measures implemented 7 days after reaching the turning point [14, 15]. Figure 1 and Table 1 suggest that the importance of the recommendation.…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…It is not wise strategy to withdraw all prevention and control measures before the number of the all infected people have been cleared. 100% blocking the speed at which COVID-19 infection spreads is key Strategies for early clearance or reduction of epidemic spread possible [15, 16].…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 2 more Smart Citations

Summaries, Analysis and Simulations of Recent COVID-19 Epidemics in Mainland China

Lee

2022

Preprint

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Background: Globally COVID-19 epidemics have caused tremendous disasters. China prevented effectively the spread of COVID-19 epidemics before 2022. Recently Omicron and Delta variants cause a surge in reported COVID-19 infections. Methods: Using differential equations and real word data, this study modelings and simulates COVID-19 epidemic in mainland China, estimates transmission rates, recovery rates, and blocking rates to symptomatic and asymptomatic infections. The transmission rates and recovery rates of the foreign input COVID-19 infected individuals in mainland China have also been studied. Results: The simulation results were in good agreement with the real word data. The recovery rates of the foreign input symptomatic and asymptomatic infected individuals are higher than those of the mainland COVID-19 infected individuals. The blocking rates to symptomatic and asymptomatic mainland infections are lower than those of previous epidemics. The blocking rate implemented between March 24-31, 2022 may not prevent the rapid spreads of COVID-19 epidemics in mainland China. For the foreign input COVID-19 epidemics, the numbers of the current symptomatic individuals and the asymptomatic individuals charged in medical observations have decreased significantly after March 17，2022. Conclusions: Need to implement more strict prevention and control strategies to prevent the spread of COVID-19 mainland infected individuals. Need to keep the present prevention and therapy measures to foreign input COVID-19 infected infections until infected individuals to be cleared.

show abstract

Section: Resultsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

See 1 more Smart Citation

Summaries, Analysis and Simulations of Recent COVID-19 Epidemics in Mainland China

Lee

2022

Preprint

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

show abstract

“…In order to estimate numerically the transmission rates and the blocking rates to the symptomatic and the asymptomatic infections, we need to set up mathematics models (similar to [2, 3, 5, 6]) to simulate the dynamics of the spread of the infection disease.…”

Section: Analysis and Simulations Of Covid-19 Epidemics In Chinamentioning

confidence: 99%

Summaries, Analysis and Simulations of Recent COVID-19 Epidemic in Mainland China During December 31 2021-December 6 2022

Min

2023

Preprint

Self Cite

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

Background: The recent COVID-19 epidemic in mainland China is an important issue for studying the prevention and disease control measures and the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic. Following our previous study for the mainland China epidemic during December 6 2021 to 30 April 2021, this paper studies and compares the the mainland China epidemic during December 6 2021 to December 6, 2022. Methods: Using differential equations and real word data (both domestic and foreign input infected individuals) modelings and simulates COVID-19 epidemic in mainland China during May 1 2021 to December 6 2022, estimates the transmission rates, the recovery rates, and the blocking rates to the symptomatic and the asymptomatic infections. Results: The simulation results were in good agreement with the real word data. (1) The average input transmission rate of the foreign input symptomatic infection individuals was much lower than the average transmission rate of the symptomatic infection causing by the mainland symptomatic individuals. (2) The average input transmission rate of the foreign input asymptomatic infection individuals was was much lower than the average transmission rate of the asymptomatic infection causing by the mainland symptomatic individuals (3) The average recovery rates of the foreign input COVID-19 symptomatic and asymptomatic infected individuals were much higher than the average recovery rates of the mainland COVID-19 symptomatic and asymptomatic infected ndividuals, respectively. For the mainland epidemic simulations: (1) If kept the transmission rates, the recovery rates, the death rate and the blocking rates on day 181 (June 30, 2022), the numbers of the current symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals would reduce to about one on day 277 (October 4, 2022). (2) If kept the transmission rates, the recovery rates, the death rate and the blocking rates on day 340 (December 6, 2022) until day 377 (January 16, 2023), the numbers of the current symptomatic and the asymptomatic infected individuals would increase to 38896 and 230924, respectively, the cumulative death individuals would increase from 599 to 615, respectively. (3) If kept the transmission rates, the recovery rates on day 340, but decreased the blocking rates to 30% and select the death rate to equal to the average death rate during days 104-150, then the simulation showed that on day 377, the numbers of current symptomatic and the asymptomatic infected individuals would increase to about 33 723 8057 and 501 626 885, espectively, and the cumulative death individuals would reach about 1 012 543. For the foreign input epidemic simulations: (1) If kept the transmission rates, the recovery rates, and the blocking rates day 242 (August 30, 2022), until day 340, the numbers of the current symptomatic and the asymptomatic infected individuals would decrease to 13 and 430, respectively. (2) If kept the transmission rates, the recovery rates, the death rate and the blocking rates on day 340 until day 377 (January 16,2023), the numbers of the current symptomatic and the asymptomatic infected individuals would decrease and increase to 185 and 1935,respectively. (3) Recommendations on COVID-19 epidemic base on WHO's technic guidelines and HBV Infection in Chimpanzees are provided. Conclusions: (1) For the mainland individuals' epidemic, keeping the blocking rates of over 86% and 93% to the symptomatic and asymptomatic infections , and the recovery rates of over 0.119 and 0.112 to the symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals may make the numbers of the current symptomatic and asymptomatic infected individuals to decrease to very low levels in three months. (2) For the foreign input individuals' epidemic, keeping the transmission rates of under 0.07 to the symptomatic and asymptomatic infections , and the recovery rates of over 0.125 and 0.099 to the symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals may make the numbers of the current symptomatic and asymptomatic infected individuals to decrease to very low levels in four months. (3) After December 6, 2022, decreasing the blocking rates of under 30% to the symptomatic and asymptomatic infections may cause over 800 millions individuals' COVID-19 infections and over 10 millions COVID-19 infected individuals' death. (4) It is necessary that administrations implement strict prevent and control strategies to prevent the spread of new COVID-19 variants.

show abstract

“…In late May, the epidemic situation in Shanghai was essentially controlled, and normal production and life were restored on June 1. The epidemiological characteristics of the Shanghai epidemic and the effect of public health interventions are still unclear, and there are few relevant studies ( 9 ). Thus, the association cannot be comprehensively and accurately described.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

COVID-19 epidemic and public health interventions in Shanghai, China: Statistical analysis of transmission, correlation and conversion

Chen

Wang

et al. 2023

Front. Public Health

View full text Add to dashboard Cite

BackgroundThe Shanghai COVID-19 epidemic is an important example of a local outbreak and of the implementation of normalized prevention and disease control strategies. The precise impact of public health interventions on epidemic prevention and control is unknown.MethodsWe collected information on COVID-19 patients reported in Shanghai, China, from January 30 to May 31, 2022. These newly added cases were classified as local confirmed cases, local asymptomatic infections, imported confirmed cases and imported asymptomatic infections. We used polynomial fitting correlation analysis and illustrated the time lag plot in the correlation analysis of local and imported cases. Analyzing the conversion of asymptomatic infections to confirmed cases, we proposed a new measure of the conversion rate (Cr). In the evolution of epidemic transmission and the analysis of intervention effects, we calculated the effective reproduction number (Rt). Additionally, we used simulated predictions of public health interventions in transmission, correlation, and conversion analyses.Results(1) The overall level of Rt in the first three stages was higher than the epidemic threshold. After the implementation of public health intervention measures in the third stage, Rt decreased rapidly, and the overall Rt level in the last three stages was lower than the epidemic threshold. The longer the public health interventions were delayed, the more cases that were expected and the later the epidemic was expected to end. (2) In the correlation analysis, the outbreak in Shanghai was characterized by double peaks. (3) In the conversion analysis, when the incubation period was short (3 or 7 days), the conversion rate fluctuated smoothly and did not reflect the effect of the intervention. When the incubation period was extended (10 and 14 days), the conversion rate fluctuated in each period, being higher in the first five stages and lower in the sixth stage.ConclusionEffective public health interventions helped slow the spread of COVID-19 in Shanghai, shorten the outbreak duration, and protect the healthcare system from stress. Our research can serve as a positive guideline for addressing infectious disease prevention and control in China and other countries and regions.

show abstract

Summaries, Analysis and Simulations of Recent COVID-19 Epidemic in Shanghai

Cited by 4 publications

References 14 publications

Summaries, Analysis and Simulations of Recent COVID-19 Epidemics in Mainland China

Summaries, Analysis and Simulations of Recent COVID-19 Epidemics in Mainland China

Summaries, Analysis and Simulations of Recent COVID-19 Epidemic in Mainland China During December 31 2021-December 6 2022

COVID-19 epidemic and public health interventions in Shanghai, China: Statistical analysis of transmission, correlation and conversion

Contact Info

Product

Resources

About