Suitable ecological niches of invasive malaria vector under present and projected climatic conditions in South of Iran

Abstract

Background Unfortunately, the resurgence of malaria occurred in Iran after three years of free malaria conditions, from 2022. Efforts to control malaria through surveillance, diagnosis, treatment and prevention measures have shown progress, but climate change may pose challenges to these efforts, potentially increasing the epidemic potential of malaria in susceptible regions. The research look for to predict the current and future geographical range and suitability of Anopheles stephensi mosquitoes in southern Iran. This information is important for assessing the risk of disease transmission and developing successful strategies for controlling these vectors in the future. Method The study compiled a database of An. stephensi findings in Hormozgan province based on field studies and utilized various scientific databases to gather relevant data. Geographical coordinates and distribution data of the species were employed for mapping and forecasting its spread under current and future climate conditions. A total of 19 bioclimatic variables were used for ecological niche prediction by the Maximum Entropy Model. The MaxEnt software was employed to evaluate potential changes in the spatial distribution of An. stephensi in the future, with the model's performance assessed using ROC analysis and AUC values. Results Anopheles stephensi distribution in Hormozgan province was studied over the past three decades, with 101 locations reported. The MaxEnt model predicts changes in distribution under different climate scenarios. The model's strong performance was demonstrated by ROC analysis, with AUC values ranging from 0.81 to 0.85 for training data and 0.62 to 0.72 for test data. Five key bioclimatic variables were identified, with Isothermality being the most impactful. The study highlights the significant influence of the Mean Temperature of the Driest Quarter. The modeling outcomes indicate that roughly 19–27% of the province's territory has a significant likelihood of An. stephensi thriving and expanding. Discussion The model suggests that 19–27% of the province's land is highly conducive to An. stephensi, with concentrated areas of suitability in the western part of Minab County. The study emphasizes the importance of taking proactive steps to tackle the effects of climate change on diseases carried by vectors, such as malaria.