Subtropical high-montane forest climate refuges in Brazil

Abstract

Climate change represents one of the greatest threats to global biodiversity. We investigate how climate change will affect the future potential distribution of tree species in subtropical high montane habitats in the Atlantic Forest and identify potential climate refuges for these species. The most frequent and exclusive species in this ecosystem were selected and geographic coordinates were compiled. The maximum entropy algorithm was used for climatic niche modeling. Two scenarios for 2061-2080 were considered for future predictions, one low impact (RCP 4.5) and one high impact (RCP 8.5). Isothermality, mean temperature in the driest quarter, mean temperature in the hottest quarter, rainfall in the driest month, and rainfall in the hottest quarter were the variables that best explained the climatic niche of the majority of species. The areas of potential species occurrence were reduced by 48.37 % (± 13.63 %) (RCP 4.5) and 62.49 % (± 21.87 %) (RCP 8.5) on average. The potential area of Crinodendron brasilense Reitz & L.B.Sm. decreased the most, by 82.11 % (RCP 4.5) and 90.06 % (RCP 8.5), respectively. High elevation areas in the south of Brazil were identified as priorities for conservation to ensure that climate refuges for high montane forest species are maintained in the future. Climate change events may significantly affect the species evaluated in this study.