Subsurface Ocean Warming Hotspots and Potential Impacts on Marine Species: The Southwest South Atlantic Ocean Case Study

Franco, Bárbara Cristie; Combes, Vincent; Carman, Victoria González

doi:10.3389/fmars.2020.563394

Cited by 23 publications

(16 citation statements)

References 78 publications

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“…Tropical cyclones can induce large heat transport anomalies in the upper 100 m (Scoccimarro et al 2011), and marine heatwaves are known to occur below the mixed layer (Elzahaby & Schaeffer 2019); early prediction of OHC anomalies may aid mitigation of extreme events. Marine wildlife is also affected by habitat displacement and shrinking occurring below the surface (Franco et al 2020). Lastly, the ocean reanalysis products used in this study tend to agree on the upper 300 m heat content trends more than they do for deeper layers (Balmaseda et al 2015).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 67%

Seasonal forecast skill of upper-ocean heat content in coupled high-resolution systems

et al. 2022

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Ocean heat content (OHC) anomalies typically persist for several months, making this variable a vital component of seasonal predictability in both the ocean and the atmosphere. However, the ability of seasonal forecasting systems to predict OHC remains largely untested. Here, we present a global assessment of OHC predictability in two state-of-the-art and fully-coupled seasonal forecasting systems. Overall, we find that dynamical systems make skilful seasonal predictions of OHC in the upper 300 m across a range of forecast start times, seasons and dynamical environments. Predictions of OHC are typically as skilful as predictions of sea surface temperature (SST), providing further proof that accurate representation of subsurface heat contributes to accurate surface predictions. We also compare dynamical systems to a simple anomaly persistence model to identify where dynamical systems provide added value over cheaper forecasts; this largely occurs in the equatorial regions and the tropics, and to a greater extent in the latter part of the forecast period. Regions where system performance is inadequate include the sub-polar regions and areas dominated by sharp fronts, which should be the focus of future improvements of climate forecasting systems.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 67%

Seasonal forecast skill of upper-ocean heat content in coupled high-resolution systems

et al. 2022

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“…The subtropical gyre of the South Atlantic Ocean and its western boundary current—the Brazil Current (BC)—has shifted at a rate of 0.11°/decade (Yang et al., 2016, 2020). The poleward shift and intensification of the BC has caused a warming of the adjacent shelf and the Brazil/Malvinas Confluence (BMC), which is the region where the BC collides with the opposing flow of the MC (Artana et al., 2019; Franco, Combes, et al., 2020; Franco, Defeo, et al., 2020; Hobday & Pelc, 2014; Yang et al., 2016). Concomitant with these changes there has been a poleward displacement of the BMC.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change Impacts on the Patagonian Shelf Break Front

Franco

Ruiz-Etcheverry

Marrari

et al. 2022

Geophysical Research Letters

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During the past decades climate change has been reported to produce an intensification of the transports of western boundary currents and a poleward shift of the major subtropical ocean gyres (Wu et al., 2012;Yang et al., 2016Yang et al., , 2020. The subtropical gyre of the South Atlantic Ocean and its western boundary current-the Brazil Current (BC)-has shifted at a rate of 0.11°/decade (Yang et al., 2016(Yang et al., , 2020. The poleward shift and intensification of the BC has caused a warming of the adjacent shelf and the Brazil/Malvinas Confluence (BMC), which is the region where the BC collides with the opposing flow of the MC (

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“…In this regard, a strong surface warming has already been observed in the southwest South Atlantic Ocean over the last two decades due to a southward displacement of the Brazil Current (Goni et al, 2011;Yang et al, 2020). This warming allows marine fish and other species to colonize higher latitudes and/or for migratory species to display a more extended residency in regions sub-optimally cold in the winter (Franco et al, 2020). For example, an increase in fish richness was driven by an influx of species from warmer waters in Northern and Central Patagonia (Galván et al, 2021).…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Ocean acidification and seasonal temperature extremes combine to impair the thermal physiology of a sub-Antarctic fish

Lattuca

Vanella

Malanga

et al. 2023

Science of The Total Environment

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Subsurface Ocean Warming Hotspots and Potential Impacts on Marine Species: The Southwest South Atlantic Ocean Case Study

Cited by 23 publications

References 78 publications

Seasonal forecast skill of upper-ocean heat content in coupled high-resolution systems

Seasonal forecast skill of upper-ocean heat content in coupled high-resolution systems

Climate Change Impacts on the Patagonian Shelf Break Front

Ocean acidification and seasonal temperature extremes combine to impair the thermal physiology of a sub-Antarctic fish

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