Abstract. Hypoxia is an increasing problem in marine ecosystems
around the world. While major advances have been made in our understanding
of the drivers of hypoxia, challenges remain in describing oxygen dynamics
in coastal regions. The complexity of many coastal areas and lack of
detailed in situ data have hindered the development of models describing oxygen
dynamics at a sufficient spatial resolution for efficient management actions
to take place. It is well known that the enclosed nature of seafloors and
reduced water mixing facilitates hypoxia formation, but the degree to which
topography contributes to hypoxia formation and small-scale variability of
coastal hypoxia has not been previously quantified. We developed simple
proxies of seafloor heterogeneity and modeled oxygen deficiency in complex
coastal areas in the northern Baltic Sea. According to our models,
topographical parameters alone explained ∼80 % of hypoxia
occurrences. The models also revealed that less than 25 % of the studied
seascapes were prone to hypoxia during late summer (August–September).
However, large variation existed in the spatial and temporal patterns of
hypoxia, as certain areas were prone to occasional severe hypoxia (O2 < 2 mg L−1), while others were more susceptible to
recurrent moderate hypoxia (O2 < 4.6 mg L−1). Areas
identified as problematic in our study were characterized by low exposure to
wave forcing, high topographic shelter from surrounding areas and
isolation from the open sea, all contributing to longer water residence
times in seabed depressions. Deviations from this topographical
background are probably caused by strong currents or high nutrient
loading, thus improving or worsening oxygen status, respectively. In some
areas, connectivity with adjacent deeper basins may also influence coastal
oxygen dynamics. Developed models could boost the performance of
biogeochemical models, aid developing nutrient abatement measures and
pinpoint areas where management actions are most urgently needed.