Substitution from Air to High-Speed Rail: The Case of Amsterdam Airport

Abstract

In this paper we present the results of a study that aims to establish the potential for high-speed train travel as a substitute for short distance air travel at Amsterdam Airport. We investigated the 13 most important destinations that offer direct flights to and from Amsterdam Airport. Almost 40% of the air passengers travelling to/from these destinations are transfer passengers. Empirical evidence reveals that high-speed trains dominate the market for journeys of 2 hours or less, such as between Paris and Brussels. However, trains claim only a tiny market share of journeys longer than 5 to 6 hours; air travel dominates that market segment. Using these findings, we developed a model to estimate the substitution of air travel with high-speed train travel. The explanatory variables in this model are travel time, daily departure options, fares, and the inconvenience associated with transferring at airports. In a “minimum” scenario, we predict that in 2030 high-speed trains could replace approximately 1.9 million air journeys. This calculation is based on feasible reductions of train travel times and increased train frequencies for part of the rail network. In this scenario, Amsterdam–London accounts for more than three-quarters of the predicted substitution. In a “maximum” scenario, substitution could increase up to 3.7 million air journeys per year, provided that inconveniences for passengers when transferring at airports from plane to train are resolved and train ticket fares are reduced by 20%. These two scenarios imply a reduction of 2.5 to 5% of all flights to/from Amsterdam Airport in 2030.

The substitution of short-haul flights with rail services in German air travel markets: A quantitative analysis

“…After studying 161 European routes, Dobruszkes et al (2014) concluded that air and HSR are the strongest substitutes in routes between two and two and a half hours by train, which was also supported by the study by Behrens and Pels (2012) on the Paris-London corridor. D'Alfonso et al ( 2016) also investigated the same route and found effective air-HSR competition between 200 and 800 km, as did Kroes and Savelberg (2019). They, in addition, considered HSR a competitive substitute for air travel on trips between two and six hours.…”

“…Similarly, the HSR connection between Seoul and Busan led to a significant reduction in the frequency of flights between the two cities (Fu et al, 2012). A recent study by Kroes and Savelberg (2019) on the potential for high-speed trains to replace short-haul air traffic at Amsterdam airport showed that between 1.9 and 3.7 million annual air trips could be replaced by 2030, with the Amsterdam-London route being most impacted.…”

“…The substitution between air and HSR can be driven by many variables such as frequency of daily departures, travelling convenience, and prices (Kroes and Savelberg, 2019). However, several studies have noted the pre-eminence of distance and travel time (see Table 1).…”

“…Albalate et al, 2013;Chen et al, 2019), which can expand up to 1,000 km in countries with faster HSR services (Zhang et al, 2018). Regarding travel time, Kroes and Savelberg (2019) suggest a range between two and six hours for the strongest substitutability, with business travellers leaning towards the lower end of that scale.…”

Factors Affecting Travel Mode Choice between High-Speed Railway and Road Passenger Transport—Evidence from China

“…Gonzalez-Savignat (2004) suggests that if HSR upgrades its services, it will largely replace the airline, predicting that in the commercial sector, HSR is anticipated to capture 40% of the market, and in the leisure sector, approximately 60% [18]. The substitution effect of HSR on air transport is produced by luring traditional air travelers [19,20]. HSR could draw about 25% of the passenger market share once the infrastructure has been updated, according to Martin and Nombela (2007) [21] and Roman et al, (2007) [22].…”