Substantial shifts in flowering phenology of Sternbergia vernalis in the Himalaya: Supplementing decadal field records with historical and experimental evidences

Hassan, Tabasum; Hamid, Maroof; Wani, Sajad Ahmad; Malik, Akhtar H.; Waza, Showkat A.; Khuroo, Anzar A.

doi:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.148811

Cited by 23 publications

(11 citation statements)

References 59 publications

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“…These domains are known as the High Himalaya, the Lesser Himalaya, and the Sub-Himalaya [ 23 ]. The Himalayas is warming at a relatively faster rate (0.06 °C/year) compared to the rest of the globe [ 24 ], which raises the possibility of species extinction in the area. The region may become a hotspot for species losses as a result of human and climate-related risks to wildlife.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change and Human Activities, the Significant Dynamic Drivers of Himalayan Goral Distribution (Naemorhedus goral)

Haq

Waheed

Ahmad

et al. 2023

Biology

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The distribution of large ungulates is more often negatively impacted by the changing climate, especially global warming and species with limited distributional zones. While developing conservation action plans for the threatened species such as the Himalayan goral (Naemorhedus goral Hardwicke 1825; a mountain goat that mostly inhabits rocky cliffs), it is imperative to comprehend how future distributions might vary based on predicted climate change. In this work, MaxEnt modeling was employed to assess the habitat suitability of the target species under varying climate scenarios. Such studies have provided highly useful information but to date no such research work has been conducted that considers this endemic animal species of the Himalayas. A total of 81 species presence points, 19 bioclimatic and 3 topographic variables were employed in the species distribution modeling (SDM), and MaxEnt calibration and optimization were performed to select the best candidate model. For predicted climate scenarios, the future data is drawn from SSPs 245 and SSPs 585 of the 2050s and 2070s. Out of total 20 variables, annual precipitation, elevation, precipitation of driest month, slope aspect, minimum temperature of coldest month, slope, precipitation of warmest quarter, and temperature annual range (in order) were detected as the most influential drivers. A high accuracy value (AUC-ROC > 0.9) was observed for all the predicted scenarios. The habitat suitability of the targeted species might expand (about 3.7 to 13%) under all the future climate change scenarios. The same is evident according to local residents as species which are locally considered extinct in most of the area, might be shifting northwards along the elevation gradient away from human settlements. This study recommends additional research is conducted to prevent potential population collapses, and to identify other possible causes of local extinction events. Our findings will aid in formulating conservation plans for the Himalayan goral in a changing climate and serve as a basis for future monitoring of the species.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Climate Change and Human Activities, the Significant Dynamic Drivers of Himalayan Goral Distribution (Naemorhedus goral)

Haq

Waheed

Ahmad

et al. 2023

Biology

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“…The regions that form suitable habitats in future could be used as the conservation sites for rewilding and restoration. The possible reason for their significant niche contraction might be the increased warming in the western Himalaya where the warming occurs at faster rate than predicted for the rest of the world 10 , 11 .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Precipitation-based variables are predicted to be the most influential variables determining the distribution of R. webbianum. Climate change decrease the precipitation of the driest quarter and shows a significant alteration in Mean Annual Precipitation and Mean temperature of wettest quarter 11 . A downward trend in the average annual rainfall in the north-western and western Indian Himalaya was reported by Bhutiyani et al 87 and Sontakke et al 88 .…”

Section: Discussionmentioning

confidence: 99%

“…Besides climate change is expected to shift the plant species towards increasing dominance of warm-adapted species and loss of cold adapted species (thermophilization) 10 . The climate induced warming in the Himalaya is experiencing faster rates (0.06 °C/year) than predicted for the other regions of the world [11][12][13] , raising the likelihood of species extinction in these vulnerable regions. Analyses of temperature trends have shown that temperature increases are greater at the higher altitudes than in the lowlands 14 .…”

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confidence: 95%

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Predicting habitat suitability and niche dynamics of Dactylorhiza hatagirea and Rheum webbianum in the Himalaya under projected climate change

Wani

Khan

Verma

et al. 2022

Sci Rep

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In the era of anthropocene, global warming tends to alter the distribution range of the plant species. Highly fragile to such changes are the species that are endemic, inhabit higher elevations and show narrow distribution ranges. Predicting and plotting the appropriate suitable habitats and keeping knowledge of how climate change will affect future distribution become imperative for designing effective conservation strategies. In the current study we have used BIOMOD ensemble forecasting to study the current and predict the future potential distribution of Dactylorhiza hatagirea and Rheum webbianum and describe their niche dynamics in Himalayan biodiversity hotspots under climate change scenarios using ecospat R package. Results reveal sufficient internal evaluation metrics with area under curve (AUC) and true skill statistic (TSS) values greater than 0.8 i.e. 0.93 and 0.98 and 0.82 and 0.90 for D. hatageria and R. webbianum respectively, which signifies robustness of the model. Among different bioclimatic variables, bio_1, bio_3, bio_8, bio_14 and bio_15 were the most influential, showing greater impact on the potential distribution of these plant species. Range change analysis showed that both the studied species will show significant contraction of their suitable habitats under future climatic scenarios. Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 for the year 2070, indicate that the suitable habitats could be reduced by about 51.41% and 70.57% for D. hatagirea and R. webbianum respectively. The results of the niche comparisons between the current and future climatic scenarios showed moderate level of niche overlap for all the pairs with D. hatageria showing 61% overlap for current vs. RCP4.5 2050 and R. webbianum reflects 68% overlap for current vs. RCP4.5 2050. Furthermore, the PCA analysis revealed that climatic conditions for both the species vary significantly between current and future scenarios. The similarity and equivalence test showed that the niche between present and future climate change scenarios is comparable but not identical. From the current study we concluded that the influence of climate change on the habitat distribution of these plant species in the Himalayan biodiversity hotspots can be considered very severe. Drastic reduction in overall habitat suitability poses a high risk of species extinction and thereby threatens to alter the functions and services of these fragile ecosystems. Present results can be used by conservationists for mitigating the biodiversity decline and exploring undocumented populations on one hand and by policymakers in implementing the policy of conservation of species by launching species recovery programmes in future on the other. The outcomes of this study can contribute substantially to understand the consequences of climate change in the Himalayan biodiversity hotspots.

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“…The unlawful with improper harvesting of medicinal plants, especially the subterranean parts (roots, rhizomes), has resulted in the deterioration of the ecological systems in the Himalaya (Mehta et al, 2020a). Furthermore, the warming of Himalaya is rising faster than the rest of the world (0.06°C/year) due to climatic alteration (Hassan et al, 2021), increasing the extinction risk in this region. Such human-governed biodiversity challenges, along with climate change, might turn the region into a recruiting ground for extinctions (Cardillo et al, 2004).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Identifying Cultivation Hotspots of Aquilegia fragrans Benth.-an Endangered Medicinally Important Plant via Ensemble Modelling under Climate Change Scenarios

Bhat

Fayaz

-ul-Qadir

et al. 2023

Preprint

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Climate change is one of the main drivers for species redistribution and biodiversity loss, especially for endemic and medicinally important plant species with a restricted distributional range. For that reason, it is vital to comprehend "how" and "where" priority medicinal and aromatic plants (MAPs) might be effectively used to address conservation-related issues under rapid climate change. In the current study, we used an ensemble modelling approach to investigate the present and future potential distribution coupled with the range dynamics of the Aquilegia fragrans–a medicinally important endangered plant species in the entire spectrum of the Himalayan biodiversity hotspot. The findings of the current study revealed that, under current climatic conditions, the northwest states of India (Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, and the northern part of Uttarakhand); the eastern and southern parts of Pakistan Himalaya have highly suitable and optimal climatic conditions for the growth of A. fragrans. The ensemble model exhibited high forecast accuracy, with temperature seasonality (BIO4) and precipitation seasonality (BIO15) as the main climatic variables responsible for the distribution in the biodiversity hotspot. Furthermore, the study predicted that future climate change scenarios will diminish habitat suitability for the species by -46.922% under RCP4.5 2050 and − 55.052% under RCP4.5 2070. Likewise, under RCP8.5 the habitat suitability will decrease by -51.760% in 2050 and-94.351% in 2070. The current study also revealed that the western Himalayan area will show the most habitat loss. Some regions that are currently unsuitable such as the northern Himalayan regions of Pakistan will become more suitable under climate change scenarios. Hopefully, the current approach will provide a robust technique and showcases a model with learnings for predicting cultivation hotspots and devising scientifically sound conservation plans for this endangered medicinal plant in the Himalayan biodiversity hotspot.

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Substantial shifts in flowering phenology of Sternbergia vernalis in the Himalaya: Supplementing decadal field records with historical and experimental evidences

Cited by 23 publications

References 59 publications

Climate Change and Human Activities, the Significant Dynamic Drivers of Himalayan Goral Distribution (Naemorhedus goral)

Climate Change and Human Activities, the Significant Dynamic Drivers of Himalayan Goral Distribution (Naemorhedus goral)

Predicting habitat suitability and niche dynamics of Dactylorhiza hatagirea and Rheum webbianum in the Himalaya under projected climate change

Identifying Cultivation Hotspots of Aquilegia fragrans Benth.-an Endangered Medicinally Important Plant via Ensemble Modelling under Climate Change Scenarios

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