Subsidence risk from thawing permafrost

Nelson, Frederick E.; Анисимов, О. А.; Shiklomanov, N. I.

doi:10.1038/35073746

Cited by 370 publications

(227 citation statements)

References 6 publications

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“…The interaction between permafrost, or its degradation, and human activity is diverse and varies with environmental and societal conditions. Examples include ground subsidence (Nelson et al, 2001), vegetation changes on pastures (Wang et al, 2006), slope instability (Gruber and Haeberli, 2007;Lewkowicz and Harris, 2005), hydrological changes (Woo et al, 2008), damage to infrastructure (Larsen et al, 2008), and special requirements for construction (Peng et al, 2007;Bommer et al, 2010). This list is not exhaustive and it is likely that climate change will bring about unexpected permafrost phenomena and societal impact in the future.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Derivation and analysis of a high-resolution estimate of global permafrost zonation

2012

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Abstract. Permafrost underlies much of Earth's surface and interacts with climate, eco-systems and human systems. It is a complex phenomenon controlled by climate and (sub-) surface properties and reacts to change with variable delay. Heterogeneity and sparse data challenge the modeling of its spatial distribution. Currently, there is no data set to adequately inform global studies of permafrost. The available data set for the Northern Hemisphere is frequently used for model evaluation, but its quality and consistency are difficult to assess. Here, a global model of permafrost extent and dataset of permafrost zonation are presented and discussed, extending earlier studies by including the Southern Hemisphere, by consistent data and methods, by attention to uncertainty and scaling. Established relationships between air temperature and the occurrence of permafrost are re-formulated into a model that is parametrized using published estimates. It is run with a high-resolution (< 1 km) global elevation data and air temperatures based on the NCAR-NCEP reanalysis and CRU TS 2.0. The resulting data provide more spatial detail and a consistent extrapolation to remote regions, while aggregated values resemble previous studies. The estimated uncertainties affect regional patterns and aggregate number, and provide interesting insight. The permafrost area, i.e. the actual surface area underlain by permafrost, north of 60 • S is estimated to be 13-18 × 10 6 km 2 or 9-14 % of the exposed land surface. The global permafrost area including Antarctic and sub-sea permafrost is estimated to be 16-21 × 10 6 km 2 . The global permafrost region, i.e. the exposed land surface below which some permafrost can be expected, is estimated to be 22 ± 3 × 10 6 km 2 . A large proportion of this exhibits considerable topography and spatially-discontinuous permafrost, underscoring the importance of attention to scaling issues and heterogeneity in large-area models.

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Derivation and analysis of a high-resolution estimate of global permafrost zonation

2012

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“…1997), consistent with evidence for the effect of human-induced global warming at similar latitudes (Jorgenson et al . 2001;Nelson et al . 2001).…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Long‐term sensitivity of a High Arctic wetland to Holocene climate change

Ellis

Rochefort

2005

Journal of Ecology

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Summary 1The response of peat-rich permafrost soils to human-induced climate change may be especially important in modifying the global C-flux. We examined the Holocene developmental record of a High Arctic peat-forming wetland to investigate its sensitivity to past climate change and aid understanding of the likely effects of future climate warming on high-latitude ecosystems. 2 The microhabitat of mosses was quantified in the present-day polygon-complex at Bylot Island (73 ° N, 80 ° W) and used to interpret the radiocarbon-dated macrofossil record of three cores, comprising c. 3500 years of wetland development. Recurrent wet and dry phases in the reconstructed palaeohydrological record indicated pronounced temporal variability. Wet and dry phases were compared between cores and with palaeoclimatic proxy values, measured as percentage melt and δ 18 O in nearby ice cores. 3 Periodic wet and dry phases appear unrelated to past climate over c. 50% of the combined stratigraphic records, and are attributable instead to geomorphological mechanisms. At other times, association of wet and dry phases with significantly lower and higher values of percentage melt and δ 18 O indicate a possible effect of past climate change on polygon hydrology and vegetation, although inconsistencies between cores suggest that local geomorphological processes continued to modify a regional climatic effect. However, during a period incorporating the Little Ice Age ( c. 305-530 cal. years  ), reconstructed moisture and vegetation change is pronounced and consistent among all three cores. 4 The results provide strong evidence for the sensitivity of a High Arctic terrestrial ecosystem to past climate change during the Holocene. The estimated magnitude of changes in soil moisture between wet and dry phases is sufficient to imply recurrent shifts in wetland function, periodically impacted upon by pronounced climatic variability, although controlled principally by autogenic processes. The structure and function of such wetlands may therefore be susceptible to predicted, human-induced climate warming.

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“…Climate warming during the 20th century and increasing human activities (Jin et al, 2006;Zhang et al, 2008) have had major effects on the contemporary thermal state of this permafrost as documented in a number of papers, including a series within the Proceedings of the Ninth International Conference on Permafrost (Wu and Liu, 2004;Cheng and Wu, 2007;Marchenko et al, 2007;Sharkhuu et al, 2007;Kane and Hinkel, 2008;Wu and Zhang, 2008;Zhao et al, 2008a,b). Changes in the permafrost thermal regime can have significant impacts on local hydrology, land surface energy and moisture balances, carbon exchange between the land and the atmosphere, and ecosystems, as well as on engineering infrastructure (Cheng and Zhao, 2000;Nelson et al, 2001;Zhang et al, 2005). In addition, increases in active-layer thickness in certain areas may cause thaw settlement as ice-rich soils in the upper permafrost layers PERMAFROST AND PERIGLACIAL PROCESSES Permafrost and Periglac.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Thermal state of permafrost and active layer in Central Asia during the international polar year

Zhao

Marchenko

et al. 2010

Permafrost & Periglacial

295

185

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Permafrost in Central Asian is present in the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau in China, the Tien Shan Mountain regions in China, Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, the Pamirs in Tajikistan, and in Mongolia. Monitoring of the ground thermal regime in these regions over the past several decades has shown that the permafrost has been undergoing significant changes caused by climate warming and increasing human activities.

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Subsidence risk from thawing permafrost

Cited by 370 publications

References 6 publications

Derivation and analysis of a high-resolution estimate of global permafrost zonation

Derivation and analysis of a high-resolution estimate of global permafrost zonation

Long‐term sensitivity of a High Arctic wetland to Holocene climate change

Thermal state of permafrost and active layer in Central Asia during the international polar year

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