Subsidence in the Dutch Wadden Sea

Fokker, P.A.; Leijen, Freek van; Orlić, B.; Marel, H. van der; Hanssen, Ramon F.

doi:10.1017/njg.2018.9

Cited by 24 publications

(56 citation statements)

References 126 publications

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“…We also consider different GIA estimates and evaluate the impact this has on our regional sea-level projections. Subsidence in the Wadden Sea is not included in this section, but discussed in detail in Fokker et al (2018).…”

Section: Regional Sea-level Change Projections For the North Sea And mentioning

confidence: 99%

Sea-level change in the Dutch Wadden Sea

Vermeersen

Slangen

Gerkema

et al. 2018

Netherlands Journal of Geosciences

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Rising sea levels due to climate change can have severe consequences for coastal populations and ecosystems all around the world. Understanding and projecting sea-level rise is especially important for low-lying countries such as the Netherlands. It is of specific interest for vulnerable ecological and morphodynamic regions, such as the Wadden Sea UNESCO World Heritage region.Here we provide an overview of sea-level projections for the 21st century for the Wadden Sea region and a condensed review of the scientific data, understanding and uncertainties underpinning the projections. The sea-level projections are formulated in the framework of the geological history of the Wadden Sea region and are based on the regional sea-level projections published in the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC AR5). These IPCC AR5 projections are compared against updates derived from more recent literature and evaluated for the Wadden Sea region. The projections are further put into perspective by including interannual variability based on long-term tide-gauge records from observing stations at Den Helder and Delfzijl.We consider three climate scenarios, following the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), as defined in IPCC AR5: the RCP2.6 scenario assumes that greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions decline after 2020; the RCP4.5 scenario assumes that GHG emissions peak at 2040 and decline thereafter; and the RCP8.5 scenario represents a continued rise of GHG emissions throughout the 21st century. For RCP8.5, we also evaluate several scenarios from recent literature where the mass loss in Antarctica accelerates at rates exceeding those presented in IPCC AR5.For the Dutch Wadden Sea, the IPCC AR5-based projected sea-level rise is 0.07±0.06m for the RCP4.5 scenario for the period 2018–30 (uncertainties representing 5–95%), with the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios projecting 0.01m less and more, respectively. The projected rates of sea-level change in 2030 range between 2.6mma−1for the 5th percentile of the RCP2.6 scenario to 9.1mma−1for the 95th percentile of the RCP8.5 scenario. For the period 2018–50, the differences between the scenarios increase, with projected changes of 0.16±0.12m for RCP2.6, 0.19±0.11m for RCP4.5 and 0.23±0.12m for RCP8.5. The accompanying rates of change range between 2.3 and 12.4mma−1in 2050. The differences between the scenarios amplify for the 2018–2100 period, with projected total changes of 0.41±0.25m for RCP2.6, 0.52±0.27m for RCP4.5 and 0.76±0.36m for RCP8.5. The projections for the RCP8.5 scenario are larger than the high-end projections presented in the 2008 Delta Commission Report (0.74m for 1990–2100) when the differences in time period are considered. The sea-level change rates range from 2.2 to 18.3mma−1for the year 2100.We also assess the effect of accelerated ice mass loss on the sea-level projections under the RCP8.5 scenario, as recent literature suggests that there may be a larger contribution from Antarctica than presented in IPCC AR5 (potentially exceeding 1m in 2100). Changes in episodic extreme events, such as storm surges, and periodic (tidal) contributions on (sub-)daily timescales, have not been included in these sea-level projections. However, the potential impacts of these processes on sea-level change rates have been assessed in the report.

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Section: Regional Sea-level Change Projections For the North Sea And mentioning

confidence: 99%

Sea-level change in the Dutch Wadden Sea

Vermeersen

Slangen

Gerkema

et al. 2018

Netherlands Journal of Geosciences

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“…This is a well-documented case (cf. Vermeersen et al, 2018;Fokker et al, 2018, and references therein) consisting of gas fields operated by NAM since 2006. In hindsight all steps in the procedure have been virtually complied with.…”

Section: Wadden Sea Gas Productionmentioning

confidence: 99%

How to connect societal concerns on subsidence to expert knowledge

2020

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The proper management of subsidence hazards requires a procedure to formulate thresholds and measurement & control loops. Such a formulation should be adequate in terms of technical hazard and hazard perception, unambiguous, in plain language and preferably complying with national or international standards. The technical nature of subsidence measurements, modeling and forecasts makes the important task of transferring knowledge on this issue from society to the research community and vice versa challenging. In this paper, we therefore propose a phased procedure of setting subsidence thresholds and control loops, intended for general use. The procedure is illustrated with three cases of mining projects from the Netherlands: gas production from fields below the Wadden Sea, salt production near Veendam, and gas production near Harlingen. We provide guidance for future use of the procedure and conclude with a few suggestions on the translation issue to the subsidence expert community.

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“…Shape and magnitude of the subsidence bowl depend on the squeeze volume and the properties of the surrounding formations. Fokker et al (2018). Estimates for subsidence in 2100 are not given since it is unknown whether there will be any extraction activities beyond 2050.…”

Section: Anthropogenic Causes Of Subsidencementioning

confidence: 99%

“…This synthesis summarizes the information presented in the papers by Vermeersen et al (2018), Fokker et al (2018) and Wang et al (2018) in this special issue of the Netherlands Journal of Geosciences and combines projections of local sea level, subsidence and sediment transport into an assessment of the future state of the Dutch part of the Wadden Sea. We will restrict ourselves to projections of the future morphological development using the SLR scenarios presented by Vermeersen et al (2018) in combination with the prognoses for subsidence caused by gas and salt extraction for the individual fields in the Wadden Sea by Fokker et al (2018). In order to do this, the state of the sediment balance, as presented by Wang et al (2018), for the years 2030, 2050 and 2100 will be discussed.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

The development of the tidal basins in the Dutch Wadden Sea until 2100: the impact of accelerated sea-level rise and subsidence on their sediment budget – a synthesis

Spek

2018

Netherlands Journal of Geosciences

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Climate change is very likely to cause a global acceleration in sea-level rise (SLR). The projected acceleration of SLR will also affect the Wadden Sea.In addition to an accelerated SLR, gas and salt extraction will cause subsidence that adds to an increase in water depth in the tidal basins. This will have consequences for the sediment budget of the Wadden Sea and especially for the intertidal flats that have a high ecological value. This synthesis presents projections of the future state of the Dutch Wadden Sea for the years 2030, 2050 and 2100.The projected changes in mean sea level by 2100 for Den Helder and Delfzijl are above the global mean projections, mainly due to the above-average ocean dynamics and glacio-isostatic adjustment contributions in the regional projections. The projected rise in mean sea level for 2100 with relation to 2018 in these locations is 0.41 m, 0.52 m and 0.76 m for, respectively, the RCP2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios.When we combine the presented SLR scenarios with the subsidence estimates and compare these rates to the critical rates for 'drowning' of intertidal flats that were calculated for the individual tidal basins, we can determine the moment that the maximum imported sediment volume can no longer compensate the increase in accommodation space in a basin and the intertidal flats will start to diminish in surface area and/or height. In the RCP2.6 scenario, the projected rates of relative SLR will be below the critical rate for drowning of the inlet systems in the Dutch Wadden Sea. For the RCP4.5 scenario, the critical SLR rate will be exceeded for Vlie Inlet in 2030, and for the RCP8.5 scenario the critical SLR rate will be exceeded for Vlie Inlet in 2030, Texel Inlet in 2050 and Ameland Inlet in 2100. For the other basins the critical rate will not be exceeded until 2100 or later.The way the intertidal flats in a basin will react to 'drowning' is not clear beforehand. It is highly possible that erosion of flats in one place will produce the sediment to maintain flats in other places. Tidal flats close to the sediment-delivering tidal inlet are not likely to disappear, because there the balance between supply and erosion is not likely to change.

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Subsidence in the Dutch Wadden Sea

Cited by 24 publications

References 126 publications

Sea-level change in the Dutch Wadden Sea

Sea-level change in the Dutch Wadden Sea

How to connect societal concerns on subsidence to expert knowledge

The development of the tidal basins in the Dutch Wadden Sea until 2100: the impact of accelerated sea-level rise and subsidence on their sediment budget – a synthesis

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