Methods
to efficiently determine the relative stability of polymorphs
of organic crystals are highly desired in crystal structure predictions
(CSPs). Current methodologies include calculating the free energy
of static lattice phonons, quasi-harmonic approximations (QHA), and
computing the full thermodynamic cycle using replica exchange molecular
dynamics (REMD). We found that 13 out of the 29 systems minimized
from experimental crystal structures restructured to a lower energy
minimum when heated and annealed using REMD, a phenomenon that QHA
alone cannot capture. Here, we present a series of methods that are
intermediate in accuracy and expense between QHA and computing the
full thermodynamic cycle, which can save 42–80% of the computational
cost and introduces, on this benchmark, a relatively small (0.16 ±
0.04 kcal/mol) error relative to the full thermodynamic cycle. In
particular, a method that Boltzmann weights harmonic free energies
from along the trajectory of REMD replica exchange appears to be an
appropriate intermediate between QHA and the full thermodynamic cycle
using MD when screening crystal polymorph stability.