Subjective probability of accident and apprehension in relation to self-other bias, age, and reported behavior

Guppy, Andrew

doi:10.1016/0001-4575(93)90067-7

Cited by 55 publications

(36 citation statements)

References 3 publications

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“…In the field of road safety, numerous studies have found that people exhibit comparative optimism (CO), that is, they think their driving abilities are better, or their vulnerability to road accidents lower, than those of the average driver (Delhomme, 2000;Finn & Bragg, 1986;Guérin, 1994;Guppy, 1993;Harré, Susan, & O'Neill, 2005;Martha & Delhomme, 2009;Matthews & Moran, 1986;Rutter, Quine, & Albery, 1998;Sundström, 2007). When investigated at the general level, this kind of CO has been found to lower the likelihood of adopting safe behaviors (Delhomme, 1994(Delhomme, , 2000(Delhomme, , 2001Delhomme & Meyer, 1999;Klein, 1997;McKenna, Stanier, & Lewis, 1991) and thereby undermines the effectiveness of educational measures.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Are drivers' comparative risk judgments about speeding realistic?

Delhomme¹,

Verlhiac

Martha

2009

Journal of Safety Research

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Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Are drivers' comparative risk judgments about speeding realistic?

Delhomme¹,

Verlhiac

Martha

2009

Journal of Safety Research

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“…See Å berg (1993) and Å berg and Rimmo¨(1998) and Forward (2006Forward ( , 2008 and Forward et al (2000) for traffic violations and acceptance and correlation with accidents. 25 See Guppy (1993) for perceived risk and traffic violations.…”

Section: Datamentioning

confidence: 99%

Asymmetric Information on Risky Behaviour: Evidence from the Automobile Insurance Market

Forsstedt

2013

Geneva Pap Risk Insur Issues Pract

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This paper examines the Swedish automobile insurance market by accounting for policyholders' private information on risky behaviour in terms of major and minor traffic violations. Two approaches are used: A positive correlation test and a test where private information is used explicitly. The results show that there is a positive correlation, which is not affected when including private information in the regression, that policyholders with private information on risky behaviour are less likely to purchase full coverage, and that speeders follow a varying pattern. The conclusion is that it is favourable to use private information explicitly when asymmetric information is considered, rather than base the conclusion solely on the correlation test. The Geneva Papers (2014Papers ( ) 39, 104-145. doi:10.1057Papers ( /gpp.2013 Keywords: Insurance data; asymmetric information; adverse selection; moral hazard IntroductionAsymmetric information has long been alleged to cause inefficiencies in insurance markets. However, research has shown that the empirical findings regarding automobile insurance markets are ambiguous regarding the core prediction that individuals with extensive coverage are more likely to be high risks for the insurer. 1 Most previous papers have interpreted the absence of a significant coverage-risk correlation to mean that the contract-relevant information asymmetry is successfully handled by the insurer. Other explanations such as the absence of useful private information and policyholders' inability to act on private information have also been suggested. In addition, previous research has found that both higher and lower risks demand insurance, which in aggregate suggests that those with more insurance are not * Formerly Sara Arvidsson 1 Note that the measurement of risk is the expected reimbursement, that is, the risk associated with the insurance company. The distinction is rather interesting, especially in Sweden, where the premiums are generally low for private insurance (the category into which automobile insurance falls), and much of the cost associated with accidents is borne by the social insurances (which are financed via taxes). From a social perspective, it is important to reduce the accident risk. A change in the deductible may only reduce the incentive to report the accident to the insurer, but the accident probability may be unaffected. That is, a potential caveat is that the risk to the insurer is reduced (expected reimbursement), but not to society (the expected cost of an accident). See for instance Koufopoulos (2007) for details on relevant measure of risk.The Geneva Papers, 2014, 39, (104 -145) r 2014 The International Association for the Study of Insurance Economics 1018-5895/14 www.genevaassociation.org higher risks, and that the market can suffer from inefficiencies even in the absence of a positive correlation between insurance coverage and risk occurrence. 2 Cohen and Siegelman 3 argue that rather than trying to resolve the question of the existence of information asymm...

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“…Differences in risk perception may explain some of the differences in drinking and driving behavior by age and sex. For example, younger drivers and males tend to have lower and less realistic risk perceptions compared to other groups (DeJoy, 1989; Finn & Bragg, 1986; Guppy, 1993). …”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Acceptance of drinking and driving and alcohol-involved driving crashes in California

MacLeod

Karriker‐Jaffe

Ragland

et al. 2015

Accident Analysis & Prevention

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Background Alcohol-impaired driving accounts for substantial proportion of traffic-related fatalities in the U.S. Risk perceptions for drinking and driving have been associated with various measures of drinking and driving behavior. In an effort to understand how to intervene and to better understand how risk perceptions may be shaped, this study explored whether an objective environmental-level measure (proportion of alcohol-involved driving crashes in one's residential city) were related to individual-level perceptions and behavior. Methods Using data from a 2012 cross-sectional roadside survey of 1,147 weekend nighttime drivers in California, individual-level self-reported acceptance of drinking and driving and past-year drinking and driving were merged with traffic crash data using respondent ZIP codes. Population average logistic regression modeling was conducted for the odds of acceptance of drinking and driving and self-reported, past-year drinking and driving. Results A non-linear relationship between city-level alcohol-involved traffic crashes and individual-level acceptance of drinking and driving was found. Acceptance of drinking and driving did not mediate the relationship between the proportion of alcohol-involved traffic crashes and self-reported drinking and driving behavior. However, it was directly related to behavior among those most likely to drink outside the home. Discussion The present study surveys a particularly relevant population and is one of few drinking and driving studies to evaluate the relationship between an objective environmental-level crash risk measure and individual-level risk perceptions. In communities with both low and high proportions of alcohol-involved traffic crashes there was low acceptance of drinking and driving. This may mean that in communities with low proportions of crashes, citizens have less permissive norms around drinking and driving, whereas in communities with a high proportion of crashes, the incidence of these crashes may serve as an environmental cue which informs drinking and driving perceptions. Perceptual information on traffic safety can be used to identify places where people may be at greater risk for drinking and driving. Community-level traffic fatalities may be a salient cue for tailoring risk communication.

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Subjective probability of accident and apprehension in relation to self-other bias, age, and reported behavior

Cited by 55 publications

References 3 publications

Are drivers' comparative risk judgments about speeding realistic?

Are drivers' comparative risk judgments about speeding realistic?

Asymmetric Information on Risky Behaviour: Evidence from the Automobile Insurance Market

Acceptance of drinking and driving and alcohol-involved driving crashes in California

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