Sub-seasonal to seasonal outlook of the 2022–23 southwestern Korea meteorological drought

Abstract

The southwestern (SW) Korean Peninsula has been experiencing persistent precipitation deficits since the early spring of 2022, causing a severe meteorological drought in March 2023. As a growing season is forthcoming, the sub-seasonal to seasonal outlook of this ongoing drought comes into question. This study aims to investigate a key driver of the ongoing drought and the required precipitation for its termination and examine sub-seasonal and seasonal outlooks of the ongoing drought via probabilistic and climate model forecasts. Results showed a comparable contribution of springtime and summertime precipitation deficits, indicating that six-month accumulated precipitation deficit was a key driver of the ongoing drought. We found that at least 80, 150, and 210 mm (170, 310, and 440 mm) of accumulated precipitation is required for the recovery (full recovery) in March, April, and May 2023, respectively. These required accumulated precipitation were found in 25% and 20% of empirical and dynamic precipitation forecasts, respectively. This study suggests the collaborative effort of national and local governments and local stakeholders to mitigate negative impacts of the ongoing drought on regional communities.