Studying the trend of the novel coronavirus series in Mauritius and its implications

Abstract

Mauritius stands as one of the few countries in the world to have controlled the current pandemic, the novel coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) to a significant extent in a relatively short lapse of time. Owing to uncertainties and crisis amid the pandemic, as an emergency announcement, the World Health Organization (WHO) solicits the help of health authorities, especially, researchers to conduct in-depth research on the evolution and treatment of COVID-19. This paper proposes an integer-valued time series model to analyze the series of COVID-19 cases in Mauritius wherein the corresponding innovation term accommodates for covariate specification. In this setup , sanitary curfew followed by sanitization and sensitization campaigns, time factor and safe shopping guidelines have been tested as the most significant variables, unlike climatic conditions. The over-dispersion estimates and the serial auto-correlation parameter are also statistically significant. This study also confirms the presence of some unobservable effects like the pathological genesis of the novel coronavirus and environmental factors which contribute to rapid propagation of the zoonotic virus in the community. Based on the proposed COM-Poisson mixture models, we could predict the number of COVID-19 cases in Mauritius. The forecasting results provide satisfactory mean squared errors. Such findings will subsequently encourage the policymakers to implement strict precautionary measures in terms of constant upgrading of the current health care and wellness system and re-enforcement of sanitary obligations.

Key success factors of Mauritius in the fight against COVID-19

“…Quarantine centres for all incoming passengers have also significantly helped in timely containment of the novel coronavirus, eliminating to a great extent the risk of spreading in the local community. 6 The Mauritian success story can be inspiring for other countries. However, it should be noted that contextual factors have also facilitated the implementation and success of these measures.…”

“…The measures adopted by Mauritius have highly been praised by international organisations. 6 Countries around the world have experienced very different epidemic profiles, with contextual factors, including social and environmental factors, playing an important role in shaping the outcomes 7 -hence the importance of shaping response policies to local contexts 8 and of adapting policies and interventions in light of emerging knowledge (evidence-based policy-making), engaging in transparent dialogues with stakeholders and developing appropriate communication strategies that build public trust and support. 9 The purpose of this article is to analyse the success factors of Mauritius that could inspire other countries-if properly adapted to their context-in future outbreaks.…”

Insights on the trend of the Novel Coronavirus 2019 series in some Small Island Developing States: A Thinning-based Modelling Approach

“…The pandemic, termed as the Novel Coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19), has, as at June 2020, yielded more than 7 million infected cases with a death toll of around 400 hundred thousands. Given the speedy propagation rate of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, non-pharmaceutical interventions such as social-distancing, or self-isolation are being prioritised [50] , [31] . The pandemic has provoked devastating consequences in the global financial, merchandise and job markets.…”

“…The qcc.overdispersion in-built function in R confirms the presence of significant over-dispersion. This can be due to some latent effects such as the airborne effects [31] , [37] , [5] , [28] . These are usually handled by the Poisson mixtures [24] or some established weighted Poisson models [12] , [39] , [41] , [42] , [40] , [43] , [44] , [45] , [46] .…”

“…These are usually handled by the Poisson mixtures [24] or some established weighted Poisson models [12] , [39] , [41] , [42] , [40] , [43] , [44] , [45] , [46] . However, the estimation procedures in the Poisson mixed models are usually computationally intensive [24] , [15] , [31] . In the same vein, it is worth mentioning that some advanced generalized linear models have been recently used to model the COVID-19 series but these ignore the serial correlation among the observations [1] , [6] , [49] , [25] , [2] , [3] .…”