Studying the Intensity and Storm Surge Phenomena of Tropical Cyclone Roanu (2016) over the Bay of Bengal Using NWP Model

Ali, Mehfooz; Saifullah, MT Ir. Ahmad; Imran, Ashik; Syed, Ishtiaque M.; Mallik, M. A. K.

doi:10.3329/jsr.v12i1.42402

Cited by 4 publications

(2 citation statements)

References 19 publications

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“…The limitations and challenges associated with conventional Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) methods commonly used in storm surge prediction are then examined [31][32][33][34]. Building upon this understanding, we propose an alternative approach, the BALSSA model, which offers unique features to address the limitations of traditional methods [35,36]. The key features and capabilities of BALSSA are discussed, highlighting its potential to enhance storm surge prediction.…”

Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparative Analysis of BALSSA and Conventional NWP Methods: A Case Study in Extreme Storm Surge Prediction in Macao

Ian,

Tang,

Pau

2023

Atmosphere

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In coastal regions, accurate storm surge prediction is crucial for effective disaster management and risk mitigation. This study presents a comparative analysis between BALSSA (Bidirectional Attention-based LSTM for Storm Surge Architecture) and the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) numerical storm surge model, focusing on the Saola-induced storm surge in Macao, September 2023. To train and assess the model, we leverage an extensive dataset comprising meteorological and tide level information from more than 80 typhoon occurrences in Macao spanning the period from 2017 to 2023. The results provide evidence of BALSSA’s effectiveness in capturing the complex spatio-temporal dynamics of storm surges, with a lead time of up to 72 h, as reflected by its MAE of 0.019 and RMSE of 0.024. It demonstrates reliable accuracy in predicting storm surge magnitude, timing, and spatial extent, potentially contributing to more precise and timely warnings for coastal communities. Furthermore, the real-time data assimilation feature of BALSSA ensures up-to-date information, aligned with the latest observations, which is essential for effective emergency preparedness and response. The high-resolution grids enhance risk assessment, highlighting BALSSA’s potential for early warnings, emergency planning, and coastal risk management. This study contributes valuable insights to the broader field of storm surge prediction, guiding decision-making processes and supporting the development of effective strategies to enhance coastal resilience.

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Section: Methodsmentioning

confidence: 99%

Comparative Analysis of BALSSA and Conventional NWP Methods: A Case Study in Extreme Storm Surge Prediction in Macao

Ian,

Tang,

Pau

2023

Atmosphere

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“…After landfall, the system started weakening due to land interactions. Continuing its east-northeastward journey, the CS gradually weakened into a DD over Mizoram at 1800 UTC of 21 st , into a depression over Myanmar and adjoining Manipur at 0000 UTC of 22 nd and into a well-marked low pressure area over Myanmar and adjoining Nagaland & Manipur at 0300 UTC of 22 nd May (Ali et al 2020).…”

Section: Description Of the Selected Cyclone Case Roanumentioning

confidence: 99%

Simulation of Intensity, Track and Landfall of Tropical Cyclonic Storm Roanu over the Bay of Bengal Using WRF-ARW Model

Alam¹,

Ahmed²,

Rahman³

et al. 2021

Dhaka Univ J Earth Env Sci

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Almost every year, tropical cyclone forms over the Bay of Bengal in pre-monsoon and post-monsoon which strikes Bangladesh coast and the east coast of India. As the full thermodynamic features of a cyclone is not solved yet, an attempt has been made to simulate the track and landfall of cyclonic disturbances over the Bay of Bengal by using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The WRF model (version 3.8) was run in a single domain of 20 km horizontal resolution. The model was run using WRF Single-Moment 3- class microphysics scheme, Kain- Fritsch (new Eta) cumulus physics scheme, Yonsei University planetary boundary layer scheme, revised MM5 surface layer physics scheme, Rapid Radiative Transfer Model (RRTM) for long-wave and Dudhia scheme for short-wave scheme. The model was run for 24-h, 48-h, 72-h and 96-h using the National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) high-resolution Global Final (FNL) Analysis 6-hourly data using initial and lateral boundary conditions. The model simulated landfall position errors are found 53 km, 129 km, 119km and 23 km and time errors are found 02 E, 06 D, 02 E and 00 for 96-h, 72-h, 48-h and 24-h model run respectively (E indicates Earlier and D indicates Delay). The minimum time and position error is found in 24-hrs simulation. The spatial distribution is captured by the model is almost appropriate but the computational station rainfall is found less than that of observed rainfall. The Dhaka University Journal of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Vol. 10(1), 2021, P 33-45

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Performance of ERA5 winds on computed storm surge and wave–current interaction using a coupled model during Ockhi cyclone

et al. 2022

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Studying the Intensity and Storm Surge Phenomena of Tropical Cyclone Roanu (2016) over the Bay of Bengal Using NWP Model

Cited by 4 publications

References 19 publications

Comparative Analysis of BALSSA and Conventional NWP Methods: A Case Study in Extreme Storm Surge Prediction in Macao

Comparative Analysis of BALSSA and Conventional NWP Methods: A Case Study in Extreme Storm Surge Prediction in Macao

Simulation of Intensity, Track and Landfall of Tropical Cyclonic Storm Roanu over the Bay of Bengal Using WRF-ARW Model

Performance of ERA5 winds on computed storm surge and wave–current interaction using a coupled model during Ockhi cyclone

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