Studying the Herd Immunity Effect of the Varicella Vaccine in the Community of Valencia, Spain

Díez-Gandía, Ana; Villanueva, Rafael; Moraño, José Antonio; Acedo, L.; Mollar, Joan; Díez‐Domingo, Javier

doi:10.1007/978-3-319-31744-1_4

Cited by 1 publication

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“…In addition, they are normally defined assuming that all the individuals in the population are equally likely to contact any other individual in that population [2,3]. Models based on difference equations have been considered to describe the progression of chickenpox disease (see, e.g, [4,5]). However, contact patterns in real populations are indeed heterogeneous.…”

Section: Introductionmentioning

confidence: 99%

Modeling Chickenpox Dynamics with a Discrete Time Bayesian Stochastic Compartmental Model

et al. 2018

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We present a Bayesian stochastic susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model in discrete time to understand chickenpox transmission in the Valencian Community, Spain. During the last decades, different strategies have been introduced in the routine immunization program in order to reduce the impact of this disease, which remains a public health’s great concern. Under this scenario, a model capable of explaining closely the dynamics of chickenpox under the different vaccination strategies is of utter importance to assess their effectiveness. The proposed model takes into account both heterogeneous mixing of individuals in the population and the inherent stochasticity in the transmission of the disease. As shown in a comparative study, these assumptions are fundamental to describe properly the evolution of the disease. The Bayesian analysis of the model allows us to calculate the posterior distribution of the model parameters and the posterior predictive distribution of chickenpox incidence, which facilitates the computation of point forecasts and prediction intervals.

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