Study on the virulence evolution of SARS‐CoV‐2 and the trend of the epidemics of COVID‐19

Abstract

This is the first attempt to investigate the effects of the factors related to non‐pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and the physical condition of the public on virulence evolution of SARS‐CoV‐2 and the trend of the epidemics of COVID‐19 under an adaptive dynamics framework. Qualitative agreement of the prediction on the epidemics of COVID‐19 with the actual situations convinced the rationality of the present model. The study showed that enhancing both NPIs (including public vigilance, quarantine measures, and hospitalization) and the physical condition of the public (including susceptibility and recovery speed) contributed to decreasing the prevalence of COVID‐19 but only increasing public vigilance and decreasing the susceptibility of the public could also reduce the virulence of SARS‐CoV‐2. Therefore, controlling the contact rate and infection rate was the key to control not only the epidemic scale of COVID‐19 but also the extent of its harm. On the other hand, the best way to control the epidemics was to increase the public vigilance and physical condition because both of them could reduce the prevalence and case fatality rate (CFR) of COVID‐19. In addition, the enhancement of quarantine measures and hospitalization could bring the (slight) increase in the CFR of COVID‐19.

Will the Relaxation of COVID-19 Control Measures Have an Impact on the Chinese Internet-Using Public? Social Media-Based Topic and Sentiment Analysis

“…The rapid spread of COVID-19 caused widespread infection among the public, resulting in various painful symptoms and more negative emotions [ 22 , 31 ]. Nonetheless, the proportion of positive sentiment remained higher than that of negative sentiment, which is consistent with the findings of Zhang et al This may be attributed to the public’s efforts to improve their physical condition by reducing susceptibility and enhancing recovery speed [ 29 , 32 , 33 ]. The spatial distribution results of the sentiment analysis show that the cities with the largest number of microblogs were large cities with large populations, especially Beijing and Shanghai, which may be because the public in large cities tend to use social media to express their thoughts and experiences [ 34 ].…”

Why Controlling the Asymptomatic Infection Is Important: A Modelling Study with Stability and Sensitivity Analysis

“…Common types of models including SIR, SEIR, and SEIR-like forms depending on the typical features of the infectious disease are used to analyze the transmission or evaluate the effects of intervention measures. Since the COVID-19 outbreak at the end of December 2019, many studies based on compartment models have been carried out to analyze the spread of COVID-19 [15][16][17][18][19][20][21][22][23][24] and offer some guidance to control the pandemic. Most of the compartment models are composed of ordinary differential equations(ODE), in which some limitations exist to simulate the real COVID-19 transmission scenarios by four-dimensional ODE systems.…”

Evaluation of COVID‐19 pandemic spreading using computational analysis on nonlinear SITR model

“…Also recently, many studies have been performed on models of infectious diseases and COVID‐19. 21 , 22 , 23 , 24 , 25 , 26 , 27 , 28 , 29 , 30 …”

“…Ogren and Martin 20 utilized the Newton method to achieve the optimum control schedule in the biologically SIR models. Also recently, many studies have been performed on models of infectious diseases and COVID‐19 21–30 …”

“…Also recently, many studies have been performed on models of infectious diseases and COVID-19. [21][22][23][24][25][26][27][28][29][30] Based on above literature review, the prime aim of current study is to simulate and mathematically analyze the COVID-19 virus. Two efficient numerical methods are used in this paper to solve the problem.…”